366 Fallacies. [CHAP. xiv. 



sible that they should) force us to a hasty decision, a deci 

 sion, remember, which need indicate no preference of the 

 judgment beyond what is just sufficient to turn the scale in its 

 favour as against any other single alternative, we leave the 

 matter thus in abeyance. It will very likely be urged that 

 one of the explanations (assuming that all the possible ones 

 had been included) must be true ; this we readily admit. 

 It will probably also be urged that (on the often-quoted 

 principle of Butler) we ought forthwith to accept the one 

 which, as compared with the others, is the most plausible, 

 whatever its absolute worth may be. This seems distinctly 

 an error. To say that such and such an explanation is the 

 one we should accept, if circumstances compelled us to anti 

 cipate our decision, is quite compatible with its present 

 rejection. The only rational position surely is that of 

 admitting that the truth is somewhere amongst the various 

 alternatives, but confessing plainly that we have no such 

 preference for one over another as to permit our saying any 

 thing else than that we disbelieve each one of them. 



34. (VIII.) The very common fallacy of judging by 

 the event, as it is generally termed, deserves passing notice 

 here, as it clearly belongs to Probability rather than to Logic ; 

 though its nature is so obvious to those who have grasped the 

 general principles of our science, that a very few words of 

 remark will suffice. In one sense every proposition must 

 consent to be judged by the event, since this is merely, in 

 other words, submitting it to the test of experience. But 

 there is the widest difference between the test appropriate 

 to a universal proposition and that appropriate to a merely 

 proportional or statistical one. The former is subverted by a 

 single exception ; the latter not merely admits exceptions, 

 but implies them. Nothing, however, is more common than 

 to blame advice (in others) because it has happened to turn 



