SECT. 16.] Insurance and Gambling. 387 



15. If we wish to see this result displayed in its 

 most decisive form we may find a good analogy in a very 

 different class of events, viz. in the fate of surnames. We 

 are all gamblers in this respect, and the game is carried 

 out to the last farthing with a rigour unknown at New 

 market or Monte Carlo. In its complete treatment the 

 subject is a very intricate one 1 , but a simple example will 

 serve to display the general tendency. Suppose a colony 

 comprising 1000 couples of different surnames, and suppose 

 that each of these has four children who grow up to marry. 

 Approximately, one in 16 of these families will consist of 

 girls only; and therefore, under ordinary conventions, about 

 62 of the names will have disappeared for ever after the 

 next generation. Four again out of 16 will have but one 

 boy, each of whom will of course be in the same position 

 as his father, viz. the sole representative of his name. 

 Accordingly in the next generation one in 16 of these names 

 will again drop out, and so the process continues. The 

 number which disappears in each successive generation be 

 comes smaller, as the stability of the survivors becomes 

 greater owing to their larger numbers. But there is no 

 check to the process. 



16. The analogy here is a very close one, the names 

 which thus disappear corresponding to the gamblers who 

 retire ruined and those which increase in number corre 

 sponding to the lucky winners. The ultimate goal in each 

 case alike, of course an exceedingly remote one, is the 

 exclusive survival of one at the expense of all the others. 

 That one surname does thus drop out after another must 

 have struck every one who has made any enquiry into family 



1 It was, I believe, first treated as iv. 1875, where a complete mathe- 

 a serious problem by Mr Galton. matical solution is indicated by Mr 

 (See the Journal Anthrop. List. Vol. H. W. Watson.) 



252 



