FUTURE OF THE WHEAT MARKET. 101 



on this question, are not so numerous but that they be ascertained 

 by an inquiry, which this body may set on. foot. 



Some of the points to be specifically answered are, as I under 

 stand them, these: 



First As I understand the area adapted to the growing of wheat 

 in Western Russia and Eastern Austria is nearly, if not quite, ade 

 quate to the production of the entire surplus demand by England; 

 that a lack of facilities for transportation has, in the past, prevented 

 such production, just as lack of the same facilities prevented it in 

 California; that with the supply of such facilities an increase of pro 

 duction is to be looked for, not unlike the increase which California 

 has shown in the last, and promises in the next season, Even 

 though the increase should not be affected in Russia with the 

 same suddenness that has been effected by California energy, 

 yet it may be expected to be equaled in two, three, or four seasons. 

 Also, I understand that the facilities for wheat transportation in 

 Russia have already been supplied by the railways built by the Gov 

 ernment during the past two years, and which are still in progress; 

 but the reason the surplus did not increase has been that those two 

 years were bad ones, just as they were in California in 1870 and 1871; 

 that the Russian and European crops generally were injured by floods 

 and excessive wet; but a recurrence of such seasons is no more to be 

 expected than drought in California; in fact, continual crops must be 

 expected to maintain their &quot; average &quot; yield; that this average will 

 be applied in Russia to an enormously increased area, and that this 

 area is capable, with the increase of transportation facilities, of in 

 definite extension. And in order to perceive the full significance of 

 this development, it is only necessary to remember that Russia reg 

 ularly supplies two thirds of the total English import, or two mill 

 ion of tons out of three million. An increase of only one half, 

 therefore, in her surplus, would suffice to supply the wants of Great 

 Britain, to the exclusion of every other exporting country. 



But France and Germany offer a larger surplus than that of Cali- 

 ixornia which has been suspended the past two years, first, by the 

 war, and next by a bad crop year which has a prior chance in the 

 English market; that is, which pays a lower transportation to get 

 there; next comes the Russian surplus; and next that of the Atlantic 

 American sea-board, paying a freight of only $5 to $7 per ton. Last 

 of all are the Pacific ports of Chili, Australia and California, paying 

 freights, which are at the comparative rates of $12, $15 or $20 per 

 ton of which California pays the highest. The difference between 

 freights to England from New York and from San Francisco, is 

 never less than half a cent, per pound. 



Now, to show that we are not dealing with a speculative and 

 remote danger, but with an actual and near one, it must be borne in 

 mind that the price of first-quality wheat in England, in average 

 seasons, during a series of years past, has been- under $2 50 per one 

 hundred pounds; it has even run as low, if I remember right, as $2. 

 It was sold at these prices at a profit, by the exporting countries, 

 which are still the competitors of California, and which have since 

 increased their facilities for transportation; that is, their facilities 

 for laying down their surplus in England in larger quantities and at 



