TABLE OF CONTENTS vii 

 PART V. 



THE ATTAINMENT OF SCIENCE AND CERTITUDE. 



CHAPTER I. 

 SCIENCE AND DEMONSTRATION. 



PAGE 



248. Elementary Notions Defined: Truth, Ignorance, Error, Evidence, 



Certitude, Opinion, Probability, Doubt 210 



249. Three Kinds of Certitude ; Metaphysical, Physical, and Moral . . 214 



250. Necessary Truth of Metaphysical Laws ; Contingent Truth of Physical 



Laws and Facts 217 



251. Aristotle s Ideal of &quot; Scientific &quot; Knowledge 223 



252. Nature and Conditions of Demonstration 225 



253. Restricted Scope of Aristotelean &quot; Science &quot; 229 



254. Principal Kinds of Proof 232 



255. Demonstration and Scientific Explanation. &quot; Popular Explanation &quot; . 235 



256. Limitations of Scientific Explanation 239 



257. An Erroneous View of Explanation 241 



258. Discovery and Proof of Truth by Induction and by Deduction . . . 243 



259. Moral Certitude in the &quot; Human &quot; Sciences .... . 248 



260. Belief on Authority 250 



261. Historical Science and Certitude : Its Criteria and Sources . . . 253 



CHAPTER II. 

 OPINION AND PROBABILITY. 



262. Nature of Probability : Cumulative Evidence : &quot; Practical &quot; Certitude . 260 



263. Probable Arguments : The Aristotelean Enthymeme .... 263 



264. Estimation of Probability : The Concept of &quot; Chance &quot; . . . .268 



265. Conditions for the Mathematical Estimation of Probability . . . 272 



266. Rules for Estimating Probability 276 



267. Inverse Probability : Bernoulli s Theorem : Elimination of Chance . . 278 



268. Application of the Calculus of Probability to Natural and Social 



Phenomena 282 



269. Function of Statistics and Averages : Their Right and Wrong Interpre 



tations 285 



CHAPTER III. 

 ERROR AND FALLACIES. 



270. Logical Treatment of Error and its Sources 294 



271. Error and Fallacy 296 



272. Some Attempted &quot; Classifications &quot; of Fallacies : &quot; Formal &quot; and 



&quot; Material &quot; Fallacies 298 



273. Fallacies Incident to Conception 303 



274. Fallacies Incident to Judgment and Immediate Inference . . . 308 



275. Fallacies Incident to Method 315 



QUESTIONS 338 



GENERAL INDEX 343 



