, 1919.] 



.|,,\ M\ \i,l;K I I.TI'KK. 



MR. Il .1 THOMSON. " I 1 - 1 



raanun*, and tin- m< re.is.-d uv <>f p..ia-h. 



I Detail* ot the*- calculations an- . I .Me ll.i 



The abori> figurr* are of crourmp onlx appro- 

 InU the infornimtion nt our disposal :- -utlu lently 

 i hie the entimatr to be regarded as 

 fairly rloav. 



The probable position in t! m i.lun. . 



a 



1!-J Mix an hardly he .|.-!m. .1 l>ui pi 



m. In ..::: that owing to increa-. .1 -Upmonta 



of uitrate of S.H|U tin | i nmmnnin 



may fall to nay 1- |T ton. In tin- eaae of super 

 phosphate. the shortage in tin- supply of pho-phal- 

 rock in not likolv to be remedied in 1'Xli. l-m the 

 pruc ill prolial>ly fall owing : ights. 



If we estimate the di^-line nt I "i per cent. this would 

 make 31) , rphosphate nhout (> 11! 



t-in. Mi. drin.-mcl for basic slag i- in CXCCHS of ilr 

 supply owing to its relative c heapin-ss compared with 

 superphosphate. and no increase in price is I IK 



In tin- vase of nitrate of soda, by the autumn of 

 1990 large shipments from Chili arc likely t > he arriv- 

 ing, and the price innv fall to (syi 15. A dc-< line 

 in price* in also probable in the case of potash. Any 

 exact estimate is impossible. ~.i\. kainit. '> : sylvinite, 

 .uriato. 15; sulphate, il7. 



.mating the quantity used on the lines adopted 

 in Table II.. fertilise Mould show an average coat 

 per ton of C6 17s. in 1920-21, n decline of 22 per -out. 

 aa compared with 1919-20; but still be 73 per cent. 

 above 1912. 



i2l 1'iirri uj putting Mtifft. 



I'ntil towards the end of 1916 the supply of. feeding 

 tuffs did not become exceptionally short and the 



n prices was not generally more than 5<) per cent 

 Karly in 1918 prices Here controlled hy tin 1 Ministry 

 of Food at the figures then ruling, and t> 

 remained in force until the spring of MH!i. when the 

 Order was revoked. The feeding stulls which were 

 fontnilled by this Order were all kinds of oil cake and 

 meal, milling offals, and brewers' grain, hut not mai/.c. 

 oata or feeding barley, which were dealt with -]. n 

 ately and were subject to mor.- nr less direct mntrol 

 by the Wheat Commission. In August, HtlJi. the 

 price* of oil cakes showed a great tendency to i i-. 

 owing to the shortage of supplies abroad ami tonnage 

 difficulties, and it was decided to introduce a mo. 

 form of control by which maximum pri. - were fixed 

 by voluntary agreement. I'nder this arrangement 

 dealers and merchants are licensed on condition that 

 they undertake to sell at not more than the agreed 



-. Thi* system will in all probability continue 

 in operation until next summer. It only' applies at 



lit to oil cakea and meal, but it [ proposed t.. 

 extend it so that milling offals and maize can onlv 

 be sold by licensed dealers. The pr ir. ..f milling 

 offaU is fixed by tie Wh.-at Coinni ission . ./ mill. In 

 the case of mni/.e tin- Wheat Commission is the only 

 ini|Mirter and fixes the price t which it shall he sold 



'iporting and distrflmting meichants. Tln-ri- [| 

 lion no (ontr.il iver feeiling harli-y. In the ease of 

 oats. ini|Kirter.s niay n<it M'l! ahovl. eerluin maximum 

 prices. 



A comparison of average prices of feeding stuffs 

 at different dates is attached 



hardlv possible to estimate the average increase 

 in feeding stilus as the supply and the purposed for 

 which they nrc used vary so considerably. 



Taking some of the principal feeding stuffs tin 

 position is as follows: 



Increase in fnorease in 



March, 1919, ax August, 1919, as 



compared with compan-il u ith 



191.1 1 I. 19IM 11. 



Milling offals ... 10.% per cent. ... 14 .1 per 



Maize ...... |:r, ... i 



Oau ...... i:.2 .. ... .' 



Feeding Barley... II!" .. ... )>.:' 



Linwecloake ... IM ... 



If We t-ike ill. -' as I. ; 



Melal He ; , . ,,, 



Mir I.-V. I 



:i fin 



making an average n. f . 



With regard to the future, the Ministry of Food is 

 ..I opinion that prices <,| oil < aken will fall in the near 

 future I. iii-.ed i like tit the present is selling in 

 large quantities at L'JI '2s. 8d., as compared with the 

 greed price of i">. Argentine neu crop linseed for 

 id delivery is much below spot pine-. Cntton 

 Mwd is also falling. 



^The Wheat Commission have arranged for the im 

 |">rt.itn>n <>t mills-..' on a greatly inerea-ed 



all\ eijual to prewar, and this will do much 

 to relieve the stringency ill feeding stuffs. Against 

 tins must be set the poor hay (Top. 



It is practically impossible to prophesy as t<> the 

 future course of prices ; on ^resent indications prioM 

 are n<it liki>ly to rise further, and everything |M>ints to 

 a fall. 



( v.n-ideruhle difficulty arises in calculating the in 

 cren.se in the co-a <>t latin si^'df. owing to the fact th:u 

 there are numerous \atietier. ol everv kind <>l these 

 seeds, and even when a standard variety ot a particu- 

 lar kind of seed is taken, there is no basic market 

 price. Quotations of average prices obtained 

 several of the leading aeed firms, show consideraMe 

 variation, and it is only possible to arrive a 

 approximate figure by striking an average of the 

 various prices submitted. 



The price ol i.-ieal seed is to a large i \tent 



lu-d b\ the price oi the milling or feeding quality 



n! the seed in question, a more or less regular premium 

 over the milling or feeding price heiiiji paid l<. 

 intended for sowing. Thus the eurvo ot ihe pn 



il seed follows fairly i lowly that ot the l^-ding 

 qualities. The quality ol tin- ii.ir\,-i is. hm\i \ 

 factor in the variation in price of cereal seeds 

 year to year, and this will probably l>e partii ularlv 

 marked in connection with the price ol -,^1 o;,: 

 seed barley required for next season's sowing. II 

 currpjit hnrvestof these two (ensiK has !-, n tar inn 

 satislaetory. and in the case of barley there will als 

 prohaMy !M' an increiitwil demand tor brenme |i 

 i-timated that the SXN<! oats will i<st II |.ci 

 more next aeann than in the l!'|s.|!i s,^,^,,,, .,,,d t |,ai 

 the im rease m seed barley will amount to l.'l per ci-nt. 



Tin- pn ..... 1 root seod.s (turnip, mangel and s\\edei 

 during the past aeason showisl a marked in 

 ill., pre-war averages, amounting to 171 per cent, in 

 the ease ol turnips. ">;{ per cent, in mangel and 1'lilt 

 MI in swede. M.-! .-I this seed is home urown. 

 and tin increase is due to the extra cost of pi 

 ti.in (farmers who contract with seed fin- 

 root seed are asking considerably higher prices than 

 in pre-war days). l>ad ml enhani.d 



handling, i.e., cleaning, .storing and dJMi il.ntm^ 

 'ITio high prices obtained for root seeds have, how- 

 1 ver. can n to increase their acnages with 



the result that, in the case of turnips the prii 

 season will be. it is ,-M nn.-it. .1. reduced l,\ L'L 1 per cent. 

 <>\er last season's tigure. liils. mtig. I., \\ill 



probably show a decline ol !i per cent, and ."> per cent. 

 respectively. 



In the case of grn.ss a nil clover se.sl. ihe bulk of 

 which has to In- imported, prices rose in IM: 1 

 100 to ."MI per cent. aUive the prewar (inures. The 

 main reason for this UHS that suppli- n oil 



from large producing countries such as I.' 

 many, Aust ria-IItingary and Kel^ium. whilst the 

 trans|H>r; ehargi> Ir.nn countries which t.-mained open 

 to supply our requirements were enormously in- 

 creased. 



In view of the prol.al.le continued shortage in the 



lion ,,i seed in i he countries specified it IK 



.ted that the price of 11,4*1 of the. principal gras 



.ind clover <}- ill .-how a -till further advance next 



' ' '"" " "-I.V tgiv4. anything but 



'"'I" as to the prohnhle in- 



most of the other grass seed, the hulk of 



"'"-I from o,. . ,, vs ; ..... , ; 



-' nl -n The price of ih ,,,^ 



--.. ha- been I'.-,:! percent, orer prewa^ 



';:, " ? ;' I ,"J"7 |< "" 1 >" ^K to i,e s,,,a'i ,.,, 



' l! "' M- " carry orw 7 ' of old s,,.,l , ,./, 



