86 



UoVAI. KtMMlSM 



Aufiut, 1919.] 



SIK MI.MCV KKW, K.C.B. 



[CoHliiiueil. 



dutanco of the supplies, und tho number of the sources 

 of supply, was of course a guarantee against that, 

 the only guarantee you had. 



779. It is suggested to me, by your preface to Sir 

 William Crooks' book on wheat supplies, that you 

 have admitted that tht risible supplies wore much 

 smaller than formerly? It is always very dangerous 

 to have wrijton anything, and I may possibly have 

 said it. If I did, 1 do not go back from it, because 

 it is perfectly true. But I nare already said that it 

 is the natural tendency, in my opinion, with the 

 perfection of the means of distribution, to hold lees 



780., But between the difference in the vi&ble 

 supplies and the longer distance supplies which now 

 have to be carried, English farmers hare loss to 

 fear from foreign competition than formerly. Does 

 that not follow? No; I am not quite sure I Bee 

 how it follows.. 



781. Would it bo possible for you to offer us any 

 information about tho total production of wheat 

 in the world and the total consumption, say, for 

 two years before the war, and for the last two 

 war years? Certainly, if the Commission would like 

 to hare it. The last two years, of course, are 

 abnormal, as you know. 



783. Hare you any data which would enable us 

 as regards, say, the three chief suppliers, the United 

 States, Canada and the Argentine, to arrire at an 

 idea of the comparative increase in the cost of 

 production during the war? I should think it is 

 very probable. You know better than I do, very 

 likely, that there are data collected in the United 

 State*. I doubt reiy much whether there is any- 

 thing in any other country. 



7d3. Do you agree that the security of the supply 

 varies directly with the basis of supply; that is to 

 say, that the broader the basis of supply, the more 

 secure the total supply? Yes, as a general proposi- 

 tion, I agree. It must almost be necessarily so in 

 the case of any natural product. 



784. Is there any evidence of severe fluctuations in 

 the production per acre of wheat in our own country '( 

 Yea. If I remember rightly, the famous year of 

 low yield was, as you know, before the days of the 

 official estimates, and was put by Sir John Lawes at 

 somewhere about 20 bushels in 1879 ; and it has ranged 

 up to somewhere about 35, I think. 



785. 34? Yes, that is the range in living memory. 



786. The range, that is to say, is between 20 

 bushels and 34 bushels, or thereabouts? Yes. 



787. As regards the importation of wheat from the 

 British Colonies, hare you ever estimated, or taken 

 out a figure, as to the value of the total exports 

 for Canada sent out in the form of wheat? I am not 

 quite sure I understand. 



788. What would bo the proportion of tho total ex- 

 port* of Canada, represented by wheat? I have for- 

 gotten. 



789. But you would agree that for every shipload 

 of wheat we fail to bring from Canada, we also fail 

 to send a shipload of tho products of our industrial 

 areas? Clearly, wo have to pay for it. 



790. Mr. Batchclor: Previous to the fixing of mini- 

 mum rates of wages, is not it tho case that farm wages 

 wore principally and almost wholly regulated by tho 

 ordinary play of supply and demand? Yes. 



791. Mr. Oternwm:! have only one question; but 

 I do want to put to you the question which Mr. 

 ('nut ley asked you, and that was as to the reliability 

 of the agricultural returns before they wore mado 

 compulsory. You confirm what you have said to him? 

 Ye. 



793. Sir Daniel Hall stated that a very large 

 quantity of land was going back to grassland again. 

 I take it in those years of agricultural returns the 

 large quantity laid down to gratis seeds this spring 

 will not be shown, inasmuch as such land will be put 

 in as arable land? Yes. 



793. Is not it possible for you to add the acreage 

 put down to seeds in the spring? We have to wait a 

 year before we know whether the land is going back 



to grass or not, and 1 would suggest to tho Board 

 it u a very important |*MIH ili.a wo should know. 

 1 would suggest u column- being placed iu the Agricul- 

 tural He turns showing what laud is seeded down from 

 cereal crops? Yes, it is quito piiohiblo, and 1 will 

 look into tho point. 



Sir Daniel Hall had roally no statistic* in 

 making that statement that land is going down to 

 grass this spring? No; there are no general statistics, 

 but wo get reports from all over the country. 



.Mr. .\itktr NiiiimonJ: You said in your 

 evidence that you had access to information as to tho 

 world's supplies and the probable world's demands. 

 Have you any figures that you could put before us 

 relating to those two points? What 1 said was in 

 answer to Mr. Lennard, that we have figures showing 

 of course what hare been the imports and exports each 

 year down to a fairly recent date. From those 1 sug- 

 gested that they were the best means of forming 

 opinions for the future. But of course there are no 

 figures as to what the probable supplies will be, 

 except by inference. 



796. We are asked to present as quickly as possible 

 an interim report, which is apparently in order to be 

 a guide to the Government as to what it is necessary 

 to do in the immediate future. Would you say it is 

 more important to us to direct our attention to the 

 probable world supply, and probable world's demand 

 within the next 12 months, than in any other direc- 

 tion? It is the most important factor, or very nearly 

 the most, that you have to consider, I should say. 



797. Except, of course, as to the available shipping? 

 Yes, it is included in supplies. 



798. Would you say from your general knowledge 

 that there is .any great risk of the present prices 

 of cereals and ' meat, milk and wool, seriously 

 dropping in the immediate future? Of course that 

 is so extraordinarily difficult to answer, because it 

 depends on factors, one of which at any rate is one 

 with which I cannot profess to deal, and that is 

 tho effect of inflation and the general effect of fiiiiinco 

 and financial relations. That has great effect on 

 the level of prices; and as to the extent to which it 

 exists I should not like to offer an opinion. So far 

 as actual supplies of the commodities for the world's 

 effective demand are concerned I am one of those, 

 though others differ from me, who do not think 

 that in the immediate future, or at any rate after 

 the immediate future, there is any serious prospect 

 of a shortage of supplies. Whether we shall get (them 

 and what we shall pay for them is another matter. 



799. The present guaranteed price of cereals for 

 the 1919 crop is a minimum price, is it not? Yes, 

 the guaranteed price is a minimum price. 



800. And taking barley, for instance, itho present 

 price of barley is far in excess of the minimum 

 guarantee? That is so. 



801. Do you think it probable that the question 

 of a guarantee, oven on the basis of this year's 

 guarantee, is likely to become seriously operative? 

 In the case of barley? 



802. Take them all wheat, bnrley and oats. Do 

 not you think that the world's prices will be main- 

 tained at any rote to the present level of tho 

 guarantee? I think as conditions are at the present 

 moment, ns far as one can see, the probability ds 

 that they will; but of course, again there are tho 

 fin-tors of the Government action in the States 

 followed in Canada, of fixing a price which is not a 

 competitive price of the wheat for export. 



803. Tho loss of our ordinary supply from Russia 

 alone would require a great deal of making up from 

 other quarters? YOB; but there was an addition of 

 19 million acres to the world's supply directly the 

 war began, although, strictly speaking, it has not 

 been iniiintainod. Tho supply from Russia has been 

 moro than made good in the world's normal demand. 



804. In arriving at tho information we shall require 

 in order to make our final Report you would .-igree 

 that the basis of it should be the cost of production? 

 Yes, I do not see how you can get away from that; 

 you must hare the cost of production. 



