MINUTES OF EVIDENCE. 



119 



13 Auffust, L919.] 



SIR JAMES WILSON, K.C.S.I. 



[Continued. 



these minimum rates of wages that have heen set 

 up. They have had the effect in a very few cases 

 of raising the man's actual wages, but not as regards 

 the general run of agriculturists, because they have 



been able to secure considerably higher wages by 

 private or collective bargaining. There are, however, 

 as I say, some cases in which the minimum rate has 

 had the effect of raising the man's actual wage. 



(The Witness withdrew.) 



FIFTH DAY. 



TUESDAY, 19TH AUGUST, 1919. 



. PRESENT : 



SIR WILLIAM BARCLAY PEAT (Chairman). 



DB. C. M. DOUGLAS, C.B. 



MR. G. G. REA, C.B.E. 



MR. HENRY OVERMAN, O.B.E. 



MB. A. W. ASHBY. 



MB. A BATCHELOR. 



MR. H. 8. CAUTLEY, K.C., M.P. 



MB. GEORGE DALLAS. 



MB. J. F. DUNCAN. 



MB. W. EDWARDS. 



MB. F. E. GREEN. 



MB. J. M. HENDERSON. 

 MB. T. HENDERSON. 

 MR. T. PROSSER JONES. 

 MB. E. W. LANGFORD. 

 MB. R. V. LENNARD. 

 MB. GEORGE NICHOLLS. 

 MB. E. H. PARKER. 

 MB. R. R. ROBBIN8. 

 MB. W. R. SMITH, M.P. 

 MB. R. B. WALKER. 



Sir THOMAS H. MIDDLE-TON, K.B.E., C.B., Development Commissioner, called and examined. 



The following statement was handed in as the 

 witness's evidence-in-chief : 



2975. (1) In attempting a forecast of the future 

 economic position of agriculture, it is, in the first 

 place, desirable to make an estimate of the costs of 

 production immediately before and immediately after 

 the war. 



2976. Before the war it was possible to estimate 

 fairly closely the cost of production when the condi- 

 tions were given. During the war I have, from time 

 to time, estimated the cost of production by modify- 

 ing pre-war estimates. In Appendices A and B 

 I submit such recalculated figures for wheat and meat 

 respectively. 



2977. In the absence of a large number of accounts 

 it is impossible either to prove or disprove the cor- 

 rectness of these estimates. Their chief value is 

 that they are comparable. It is possible to assert 

 with some confidence that if it cost 33s. Id. per 

 quarter to grow wheat on certain soils in 1913-14, 

 it will cost 59s. 2d. per quarter in 1919-20, assuming 

 the seasons to be equally good ; and similarly that, 



I' it cost 48s. 8d. per live cwt, to fatten a three-year- 

 old steer in the winter of 1913-14, it will cost 

 133s. 3d. per cwt. next winter. 



2978. It should be noted that in these estimates 

 n- i hangc in tho efficiency of labour is allowed for. 

 If. as the result of shorter hours, or for any other 



ii, the output per man per day were either 

 fj;!v;iti!r or less than before, then the cost of produc- 

 ti'nii would be correspondingly decreased or increased. 



1 1 2) The average price of wheat was 33s. 4d. 

 (i i.S01bs., or 35s. per 504 Ibs. in 1909-13, so that 



if my comparison is correct, a corresponding price in 

 the next five years (assuming cost to remain constant; 

 would be 62s. 6d. per 504 Ibs. 



Would this average price, without any guarantee, 

 serve to maintain the 1909-14 area say 1,800,000 

 acres in the United Kingdom P 



2980. 1 think not, for with much higher costs th<3 

 risks from bad seasons are increased. The chances 

 are indeed that the area under wheat would decrease, 

 but not largely, since a small reduction below 1,800,000 

 acres would eliminate the bulk of the inferior wheat 

 land cultivated before the war. On the other hand it 

 must be pointed out that, since much of the better 

 wheat-producing land is very heavy, one or two wet 

 seasons would immediately be followed by a sharp 

 reduction in area. 



2981. (3) Would a guarantee of some such figure as 

 60s. per 480 Ibs. (63s. per 504 Ibs.) maintain produc- 

 tion at the 1909-13 level ? In my opinion it would not 

 only maintain, but substantially increase the area, 

 provided that costs were stabilized ; for with the 

 guarantee farmers would speculate on the chances of 

 higher prices, and there is much land in the country 

 ni'arly as suitable for corn growing as the worst which 

 was under corn immediately before the war. 



2982. In round figures we had in England and 

 Wales :- 



In 1874, 3,500,000 acres wheat and 8,000,000 acres 



total corn. 

 I'n 1914, 1,800,000 acres wheat and 5,760,000 acres 



total corn. 

 In 1918, 2,550,000 acres wheat and 7,500,000 acres 



total corn. 



