MINUTES OF EVIDENCE, 



129 



19 August, 1919.] 



SIR THOMAS H. MIDDLETON, K.B.B., O.B. 



[Continued. 



3141. You were Deputy Director of the Food Pro- 

 duction Department? Yes. Deputy Director-General 

 it was. 



3142. I suppose it may be safely said that you have 

 been in close touch with practical agriculture for 

 many years? That is so. May I now make an altera- 

 tion in my precis ? A sentence I use in paragraph 7 of 

 my evidence is misleading. I say " it certainly adds 

 to the nation's heavy load of debt." As Mr. Lennard 

 indicated, it ought to be " certainly adds to the debit 

 side of the nation's account." In my view, however, 

 both are true, because I do not see any other produc- 

 tive industry which is likely to be more useful than 

 tillage farming in the immediate future. 



The Chairman: Very well. 



3143. Mr. Prosser Jones: In paragraph 8 you 

 suggest there are in England and Wales at the pre- 

 sent time several million acres which should be under 

 grass in the interests of owners and occupiers, and 

 under other crops in the interests of the nation? Yes. 



3144. I presume you are acquainted with the work 

 of the District Committees under the Executive 

 authorities in the various counties, and that they 

 have frequently instructed farmers to plough quite 

 unsuitable land. As one means of avoiding that 

 should you favour the grading of land for the pur- 

 pose of corn growing? These Executive Committees 

 were War Committees, and it was necessary to get, 

 within two or three months' time, a very large increase 

 in the arable acreage of the land of the country. 

 Obviously, working under such conditions, some Com- 

 mittees may have made mistakes, but on the whole 

 the work of the Committees was extraordinarily good. 

 1 agree with yon, however, that if one were setting 

 out to do thir work in peace time, when there was 

 no urgency, it would be necessary to grade land care- 

 fully before it was broken up or converted from grass 

 land to tillage. 



314/5. Quite a large number of fanners that I know 

 were instructed to plough certain land that was quite 

 unsuitable for ploughing. They were compelled to do 

 it in a way, and, of course, the result was a complete 

 failure. Now they cannot get any compensation even 

 although they were forced to do it against their will. 

 You state in paragraph 4 that it is doubtful whether 

 we can ever get back to the period between 1871 and 

 1875. even if 80s. to 100s. a quarter were offered. 

 What other inducement could we now offer, in your 

 opinion, to induce the farmer to till more land? 

 I have made suggestions at the end of my precis which 

 bear upon that point. 



3146. You are of opinion that the offer of guaran- 

 teed price would not be likely to drive the majority 

 of farmers to till their land? I do not think it would 

 cause the majority of them to do so, but if it caused a 

 substantial number of them to do so it would be of 

 advantage to the nation. 



3147. Do you think the milk supply would be safe? 

 I do not know whether it would be safe, but at any 

 rate it would be safer than it is at present, or rather 

 than it has been under the conditions of the past 

 few years. 



3148. You state in Appendix A that you allow a 

 sum of 150 as an income for farmers, based on 300 

 acres at 10s. per day for 300 days? Yes. 



3149. IB not that rather a low figure for the far- 

 mer's remuneration? I simply put that down as his 

 " wages," and of course any profit over and abovo 

 that wage that the farmer is able to make, due to 

 his skill and industry, would go to him. I think that 

 150 a year would not have represented a very un- 

 usual income for a farmer farming 150 to 300 acres 

 of medium land within a period of 20 years before 

 the war. 



3150. I take it that the farm labourer in Scotland 

 would be far better off than the farmer himself, see 

 ing that we have had it in evidence that 80 has been 

 paid out to certain labourers in Scotland for six 

 months' work? I was referring to the position of 

 tho fanner before the war. Before the war the 

 Scottish farm labourer was certainly not making 



more than about 70 a year. I should think that 

 would be the ordinary wage, including perquisites. 



3151. Mr. Thomas Henderson: You say that we 

 should regard this question from the point of view 

 of national interest? Yes. 



3152. Will you tell us what precisely is your under- 

 standing of that rather elusive phrase " national 

 interest "? Does it mean by way of an insurance 

 against war risk, or what does it mean? I am 

 anxious on one side to see a large increase in th 

 rural population a point that was referred to 

 earlier by one of the members of the Commission. 

 I am anxious to see a much larger quantity of food 

 produced in this country itself, because the outlook 

 for the food supply of the world is a very grave one 

 at the present time, and unless we do more for our- 

 selves .in this country, though we shall not be faced 

 with starvation, we may be faced with very high 

 prices and great shortage. 



3153. Does that argument of yours almost in- 

 evitably lead you to conclude that guarantees are not 

 necessary in that case? No, I do not think it does. 

 I think it is highly improbable that the prices of 

 grain within the next 5 years will be approximate 

 to the 60s. which I have "mentioned. I think that 

 they will be much higher, but I do not think that the 

 average farmer of this country would be likely to 

 take the risk. He thinks of the prices which were 

 ruling before tie war. He hears of very large 

 quantities of grain which have been grown in 

 America; of the American shipping projects, and so 

 on. and he says to himself " With the hiah cost of 

 production now, I am not prepared to take the risk 

 of tilling my land." 



3154. So that the effect of the guarantee is chiefly 

 a psychological effect? Very largely. 



3155. Have you seen any likelihood of this psycho- 

 logy applying to the worker any likelihood of a large 

 majority of the workers going back to the land to 

 work? I think myself with the rate of wages now 

 current, there is not likely to be any shortage of 

 farm labour in the next few years after we have got 

 over the present year. 



3156. Is that a considered judgment of yours? 

 That is a considered judgment. 



3157. Not a. mere estimate? No, that is according 

 to my judgment. 



3158. You say somewhere else, rather picturesquely, 

 if I may say so, that in 1917 and 1918 there was a 

 race between the plough and the submarine, which 

 but for good luck would have had a fatal ending for 

 us. Turning to Germany, can it be said that the 

 increased tillage in that country during the war was 

 the means of their being able to prolong hostilities 

 to the extent to which they did? What it enabled 

 them to do in the case of Germany, was to hold out 

 for four years, where otherwise the" country would 

 have cracked up in one. 



3159. If you have any information on the subject, 

 could you tell us how long our possible maximum 

 increase of tillage would enable us to hold out? If 

 we were given two years' notice, which is a big 

 assumption, one could feed the population of this 

 country as well as Germany was fed in 1917 and 1918 

 on about 14,000,000 acres of corn. 



3160. That means about 7,500,000 more acres than 

 you have estimated in paragraph 4 of your evidence? 

 Yes, about that. 



3161. We are not likely to get two years' notice 

 of another war, are we? No, but you must always 

 remember that we could keep going for a very con- 

 siderable time, and it would be two years before 

 the actual crisis came. 



3162. There is another question I should like to ask 

 you from the psychological point of view. At the end 

 of paragraph 15 you say : " High wages are likely to 

 increase the demand for small holdings. Men of the 

 best type will be able to save money, and a proportion 

 of them will prefer to farm for themselves rather than 

 to work for wages." I would like you to make clear 

 what is your basis for that expression of opinion? 



2512:, 



