MINUTES OF EVIDENCE. 



143 



19 August, 1919.] 



MR. J. 0. VINTER., P.S.S. 



{Continued. 



Mr. J. O. VINTER, F.S.S., called and examined. 



3552. The Chairman : I understand you have pre- 

 pared a statement elaborating what you have to say, 

 but you have not had sufficient time in order to get it 

 copied and circulated to members of the Commission? 

 That is the case. I received a telegram on Friday 

 evening making a definite appointment for me to 

 come here to-day, and I have not had sufficient time to 

 get copies of my statement made. 



3553. Would you like to read it? I think it would 

 be better if I were to do so. I am sorry I have only 

 been able to prepare a very short statement of what 

 I propose to offer in evidence. 



3554. We shall be glad if you will read it right 

 through? I should like to say, in the first place, that 

 I come here with some amount of diffidence, because I 

 am really quite a small farmer. I think you gentle- 

 men will have more difficulty in getting accounts from 

 small estates than you will from large ones, and there- 

 fore I imagine the figures I have kept for a number 

 of years might be of some service to this Commission. 

 I should like to say, in the first instance, that I am 

 not willing to put in balance-sheets for war periods 

 only, but the brief summary which I propose to pre- 

 sent will by inference show the difference between 

 pre-war and post-war periods I do not consider that 

 the abnormal conditions arising out of the war, which 

 are not likely to occur again for many years, should 

 be taken as a- basis in endeavouring to arrive at the 

 future of the farming industry. The object of the 

 enquiry is, I take it, to estimate the present costs of 

 carrying on an occupation, and also to show that cer- 

 tain prices for produce will be required to leave a 

 margin of profit to the occupier sufficient in amount 

 to cover interest on capital and reasonable remunera- 

 tion for services. I propose to put before the Com- 

 mi^-ion a very short summary of three periods, one of 

 10 years, one of 7 years, and one of 21 years. I take, 

 first of all, the period of 10 years from 1897 to 1907: 

 The rent charged for the holding is 20s. per acre. I 

 \\ ;i> the owner-occupier, and the rent which I have put 

 down is based upon the rent charged, so far as I was 

 able to ascertain, for similar occupations adjacent. 

 For those 10 years the credit balance on profit and loss 

 account was 730 18s. 2d. I keep a capital account, 

 and I know all the movements of the capital, and 

 although I do not quite know exactly as a banker 

 would what the debit or credit balance may be day 

 bv dav, I arrive at an average, because I find that in 

 similar occupations to this the capital is the higiii-st 

 at the end of September and lowest about April. I 

 have taken an arbitrary figure, which, I believe, is 

 very close to the mark, of C*< per acre as representing 

 the capital employed. The return on that capital was 

 3 13s. Od. per cent., that is, a profit for those 10 

 yenrs nl ."is. 7(1. per acre. ^So far as the next 7 years' 

 period is concerned, I think the CommisMi TI h-- a 

 copy of the paper* I wrote, and memt>ers will find tho>e 

 figures set out on page 5 of that paper.* The paper 

 relates to two light farms situate in South Cambridge- 

 shire, the acreage of one being 260 and of the other 

 820. The character of the soil is what I should call the 



i kind of light land. The 10 year*' period that 

 I have already given you and the 7 years' period 

 which T have alluded to in the paper, refer to the 

 smaller holding of 260 acres. The 7 years' period is set 

 out, as I ay, on page 5 in the paper. The capital 

 is 8 per arre, and the profit per acre, excluding Hs. 

 interest on capital and 4d. for Income Tax, 

 was 23s. 6d. I shall explain that later on. I 

 first of all put in the interest on capital, and 

 also the Income Tax, because that was all right, so 

 far as keeping my own bocks was concerned, but it 

 would not lie admitted, I take it, in this enquiry, 

 mp the two periods of 10 years and 7 years, 

 making 17 years, and 1 find that the return on the 

 c.ipital for 17 years is 8 per cent., and the profit 

 per acre, excluding interest on capital and Income 

 Tax, was 13s. 4d. That all points to the fact that 

 from 1900 and onwards, up to the war, there was 

 an improvement in farming, and I should say, judg- 



* For extract of portions of this paper which are 

 'd to in the witness's evidence. W. Appendix 

 V, VI. 



.Sift- 



ing from my own experience, that there was what I 

 should term a fair living profit for the 8 years pre- 

 vious to the war. Then I come to the 21 years' period 

 ending in September, 1918. The return on the trad- 

 ing capital is 15 per cent., taking the whole period. 

 How much of this represents capital taken out of the 

 fertility of the land by cross cropping and want of 

 labour for cleaning I suppose it is impossible to say, 

 but I have put it at not less than 4 to 5 per acre. 

 If that is extended over the whole period of 21 years 

 it reduces the net from 15 per cent, to 13 per cent. 

 To my mind, if I might express an opinion, that is 

 not an unreasonable profit, and I should go further 

 and say that but for war profits, which were larger, 

 up to that time farming was about the most 

 unremunerative business in the countrv. The sum- 

 mary is this; The return on capital for 10 years was 

 3 13s. per cent. ; for 17 years, 8 10s. per cent. ; and 

 for 21 years, 13 10s. per cent. that is, 13^ per cent. 

 Then I come to the estimate of present cost. You 

 will find on page 5 of the paper that 1 have made 

 an estimate for this year that is the current year 

 ending the 29th September, 1919 of 9 18s. per acre, 

 including interest on capital and Income Tax. The 

 receipts are estimated at 10 guineas and the net at 

 12s. per acre. Since I wrote the paper that Govern- 

 ment has published their guaranteed prices for this 

 year's crops, and there has also been an increase in 

 the rate of wages in operation. This increase, taking 

 a full year on light land, which I calculate at three 

 men to the 100 acres, will amount to 9s. per acre. 

 I have, therefore, revised my estimates in this way: 

 [ omit interest on capital, and also Income Tax. 

 These omissions will reduce the cost of carrying on to 

 8 guineas, to which should be added 3s. 6d. per annum 

 per acre increase in the labour bill for the 20 weeks 

 of the year, from May 15th to September 29th, making 

 a total of 8 lls. 6d., or if the increase of wages 

 had been in operation for the full year it would be 

 8 17s. My estimate for cereals only on the total 

 receipts were as follows : 4 quarters of wheat at 76s., 

 15 4s. ; 4J quarters of barley at 70s., 15 guineas ; 

 6 quarters of oats at 60s., 15; leaving an average, 

 assuming the same acreage for each crop, of 15 6s. 4d. 

 The Government guarantee works out, taking their 

 quantities and prices, as follows: 4 quarters of wheat 

 at 75s. 6d., 15 2s. ; 4 quarters of barley at 

 68s. lOid., 13 1 5s. 6d. ; and 5 quarters of oats at 

 47s. 6d., 11 17s. 6d., giving an average fr 

 the same acreage of each cereal of 13 lls. 8d., or 1 

 14s. 8d. less than my estimate. My reconstructed 

 figures would be as follows : Total receipts, 9 12s. 6d. ; 

 cost of carrying on, 8 17s.; net profit, 15s. 6d. per 

 acre, including interest on capital and manasemeit. 

 I may say I do not expect, according to the esti- 

 mates which I have made this year on my 

 own crops, that the Government's estimates of 

 quantities will be obtained this year on the very light 

 lands in Cambridgeshire. I fear from my own 

 occupation, and I am told also in Norfolk, the yields 

 will be very much less than the quantities as set out 

 in the Government estimates, and there will be very 

 serious losses at the guaranteed prices. There is one 

 point that I think might be of interest to the Com- 

 mission. On light lands farmed under the four or 

 five course shift, the value of the cereal harvest 

 should equal the total cost of carrying on to leave a 

 living profit. For the 7 years, 1907 to 1914 the 

 years to which I have alluded in which there was an 

 improvement in agriculture the average value of 

 the cereal crop exceeded the total outgoings by 6s. 8d. 

 an acre. The profits from other produce were 16s. 4d. 

 per acre. Those two together will prove the figures 

 which I have given on page 5 of the pamphlet, omit- 

 ting interest on capital and Income Tax. I do not 

 know whether it is necessary for me to allude to the 

 fact that those profits were made on a very low 

 labour bill of 31s. 5d. per acre. Now I come to 

 another point, that is, the prices required to give a 

 reasonable profit. I estimate- that I should require 

 2s. 6d. per stone for wheat, barley, and oats for all 

 corn grown, both head and tail, based on the quan- 

 tities which I have estimated, to show 13^ per cent, 

 on the 'trading capital. 2s. 6d. per stone is 90s. for 



K 



