MINUTES OF EVIDENCE. 



14 October, 1919.] 



MR. JAMES GARDNER. 



[Continued. 



do not adopt this policy, not necessarily on guaran- 

 tees, but the combined policy of all these things to 

 get our home agriculture going if you have to defend 

 this country in case of invasion or for other reasons. 

 You would have to spend more money in bringing 

 food to this country from abroad than you would have 

 to do on this policy. 



13.315. I am not dealing with that. What I am 

 putting to you is that if farmers, and employers in 

 agriculture, ask for subsides and are successful in 

 obtaining them and getting millions of the rate- 

 payers' money, I can see other industries coming along 

 with the same argument asking for subsidies and 

 wanting millions of the ratepayers' money as well. 

 My point is that if we start upon this system of 

 subsidising agriculture I fear that in the end the 

 farmer will not be any better off, because he will 

 have to pay out in subsidies to other industries as 

 much as he gets in in respect of his own? Yes, pro- 

 bably that might be so. It is well to look at it 

 from all sides. The point of view you are putting 

 now has been put often and often. 



13.316. Yes, and it will be put again, and it will be 

 put in your own district, and strongly too? Yes, if 

 other industries can show as good a case for being 

 subsidised as agriculture can show to-day, then sub- 

 sidise them. 



13.317. And if they cannot put up a better case and 

 better arguments then do not subsidise them at all? 



13.318. Mr. Duncan: I think you said that prior to 

 the outbreak of war you had had several years during 

 which the industry was carrying on and leaving a 

 margin to the farmer? Yes. 



13.319. If there had been no outbreak of war would 

 there have been any claim put forward by the Scot- 

 tish farmers for a guarantee? I do not expect there 

 would. 



13.320. They would have been quite content to carry 

 on in the position they were then in? I am quite 

 sure they would. 



13.321. Their equipment at that time was only a 

 matter of four or five years worse than it is now? 

 Yes. 



13.322. The landlords then were not in. a very much 

 worse position than they are to-day? They WITC 

 probably not in as good a position an they now are. 



13.323. It was perhaps quite as difficult to get 

 equipment out of the landlord in those days as it is 

 to-day? With the exception of prices being so high 

 to-day. 



13.324. Yes, there is the difference in the cost at the 

 present time, but it was quite impossible to get the 

 landlords to face it in those days? That is so. 



13.325. What have been the circumstances created 

 by the war which have had the effect of disturbing 

 Scottish farmers and giving them less confidence in 

 their industry to-day than they had, say, in the early 

 part of 1914? As far as regards the farmer himself, 

 the disturbing factor to him, speaking for myself, is 

 the increased cost of production following so closely 

 behind the high prices, and then, ai I have already 

 said, when the swing of the pendulum comes we will 

 get it in the neck, to use a vulgar term. That is what 

 we feel in our bones. That is what the Scottish 

 farmer feels. We are not asking for guarantees. It 

 is for the community to say. \Vo wish more arable 

 farms," and if they insist upon that then we ask for 

 a guarantee. 



13.326. Docs the Scottish farmer feel it quite so 

 < li'arly in his brains as he does in his bones? I do not 

 know that he does. . 



13.327. You say in your statement that coats have 

 followed prices? Yes. 



13.328. The farmer, therefore, has had the ad- 

 vantage during the war period of prices? Un- 

 doubtedly. 



13.329. Therefore, as he stands at the present time, 

 ho is in a more favourable position than he was pre- 

 war? Yes, if you cut him off just now. 



13.330. Can you give Us any facts or figures to show 

 why tho, Scottish farmer should have such a fear of 

 the prices of cereals collapsing, and collapsing so 

 much more rapidly than costs? Experts have differed 

 so widely in their prophecies as to what is going to 

 happen during the next two or three years that I 



think it would be somewhat invidious on my part if I 

 were to go into that question. But I must honestly 

 confess 1 do feel myself that, as regards this matter, 

 after the next two years I am a pessimist. 



13.331 . Can you refer us to tho experts you have in 

 mind so that we might be able just to collate theii 

 different estimates? I think it was probably your 

 Board of Agriculture representative here, Sir Daniel 

 Hall, and then you had the pronouncement of our 

 friend Sir James Wilson, who informed me last 

 November that wheat during last September and this 

 month would be as low as 40s. a quarter. 



13.332. Do you attach any great value to a false 

 prophet of that description ? Sir James Wilson is 

 a man who was Secretary for Agriculture under the 

 Government of India for 26 years, and he is surely 

 a man whose opinions are entitled to some respect. 

 He has studied the figures, and while a great many 

 people laugh at Sir James Wilson for the view 

 he has expressed, I am not one of those who laugh 

 at him .because the situation looks rosy just now. 

 The world situation just now with regard to the 

 production of cereals can change very quickly, 

 especially when you have a development of shipping 

 such as we have seen in the United States and when 

 other war shipping is released, and it is quite possible 

 that within a shorter period than some people think 

 Sir James Wilson's prophecy will come true. Un 

 doubtedly freights will be high and wages will be 

 high, and I do not think there will be the same 

 quantity of virgin land in other countries that there 

 was before, but I know what a slump market means. 

 I have been through it too often, and I know that 

 very often a panic arises when it should not 

 arise. I know I was selling oats much under the 

 guaranteed minimum last year. That was general 

 in my district at that time. We were selling at 10s. 

 under the guarantee price, because we thought there 

 was going to be a big fall. Anyone who has been 

 engaged in agriculture and in selling on the market 

 can tell you how quickly a panic spreads, and if you 

 have a big development of shipping and motor power 

 in farming and you have large stretches of land 

 abroad which cost very little money, I do not see 

 how with free imports of food into this country 

 our position is going to be a safe one, and I will 

 back up Sir James Wilson to that extent. 



13.333. Do you think an expert who gives a quite 

 decided opinion that the price of wheat only a few 

 months ahead is going to be 40s. a quarter, whereas 

 the actual price, if it had not been for the control 

 in this country, would probably have oeen nearly 

 lOQs. a quarter, is quite a safe expert to take as to 

 what is going to happen two or three years ahead? 

 I do not take his view or his expert knowledge 

 so much as I depend upon my own opinion. 



13.334. Do you think that your opinion that there 

 is going to be a big break in prices is held widely 

 by the farmers in Scotland? I think there is a 

 large body of opinion in Scotland thinking with 

 me. There is, of course, quite a large number of 

 farmers who take the opposite view. 



13.335. So that they are not all of opinion that 

 prices are going to break? Certainly not. 



13.336. Does that apply to all crops or merely to 

 the wheat crop that they are fearing foreign com- 

 petition? A general reduction in the price of all 

 commodities produced on the farm, with the excep- 

 tion of meat, of course; but the price of meat even will 

 come down relatively. 



13.337. What is "the position so far as milk is con- 

 cerned? I think as the price of other things cheapen 

 and money becomes more valuable and commodities 

 more plentiful that the cost of producing milk will 

 come down also. 



13.338. The cost of production will come down? 

 The cost of production will come down and you will 

 have a general fall in prices. 



13.339. If other commodities cheapen have you not 

 also to look forward to a cost of production which 

 will affect the cost of the production of cereals? 

 Undoubtedly, but that is just the difficult point. 



13.340. You are not sufficiently confident. You think 

 that tho price of cereals will break much more rapidly 

 than tho cost of their production? I am quite certain 

 of it. With regard to our joiners' bills, our implements. 



