COMMERCE, INTERNATIONAL. 



163 



AFRICA. 



Since 1872 the whole commercial world has 

 been languishing under some depressing influ- 

 ence which has afflicted production and trade 

 with a progressive paralysis, from which there 

 are yet no hopeful signs of recovery. This 

 drooping atrophy and shrinking away is dif- 

 ferent from any of the sharp and sudden com- 

 mercial crises that preceded it, which convulsed 

 and disturbed the whole credit system, but 

 which only for a moment checked the advanc- 

 ing march of production and commercial ex- 

 tension. Various causes are assigned for this 

 fatal and protracted depression and gradual 

 collapse of trade. The exhaustive effects of 

 wars must undoubtedly manifest themselves in 

 a succeeding period of privation and severer 

 labor before the wasted capital is replaced and 

 the lost time regained. The extension of pro- 

 ductive facilities in all countries beyond the 

 consumptive requirements of the people must 

 result in a sharp struggle for trade, a lowering 

 of prices, a depression of wages, and a diminu- 

 tion of profits. But this process has taken 

 place before repeatedly with the best ultimate 

 results ; and to assign it as the cause of the 



resent decline of consumption is not only to 

 eny in a great measure the destruction of 

 capital in wars, but to contradict all historical 

 precedents. The discontent and revolutionary 

 attitude of the productive classes, and their 

 continual strikes and demands, might have the 

 effect to alarm capital and discourage produc- 

 tion and enterprise ; but there is no evidence 

 that they have produced any such results. 

 Another cause, which has recently been as- 

 serted by merchants and bankers practically 

 versed in the phenomena of international 

 trade, may have more to do with the present 

 unprecedented decay of commerce and prostra- 

 tion of industry than any of the others. This 

 is the threatened demonetization of silver by 

 European countries, and the actual fall in its 

 value in consequence of the change of stan- 

 dards and conversion of its currency by the 

 German Empire. Since the first agitation ot 

 the question in Germany prices have been de- 

 clining, and with declining prices in these days 

 of the telegraph and steamship, when mercan- 

 tile operations are calculated on a minute frac- 

 tional margin for profits, it is impossible to 

 produce or export without a constant loss. If 

 the disturbance in values caused by the con- 



version into gold of the silver currency of 

 Germany, and the sale of about $300,000,000 

 worth of silver, is the cause of the present 

 long and distressing prostration of trade, the 

 action of the other western nations with refer- 

 ence to the 1,600 millions of silver which they 

 still possess is a question of the most vital con- 

 sequence to civilization. The present prices 

 are based upon the present combined stock of 

 gold and silver in the world, nearly six thir- 

 teenths of which consists of silver. Before 

 values can be adjusted to th single standard 

 of gold, the whole fabric of international com- 

 merce must fall into ruin, industry and art 

 must decay, population must be thinned out 

 by misery and starvation, and the most ad- 

 vanced races must physically and intellectually 

 deteriorate. 



The world's stock of gold and silver money 

 is estimated for 1878 at about 7,850 millions 

 of dollars, of which 4,250 millions is in gold 

 and 3,600 millions in silver coin. The stock 

 of metallic money is distributed in the differ- 

 ent countries in the following proportions, 

 given in millions of dollars : 



The statistics of international commerce and 

 domestic production show an absorption, dur- 

 ing the ten years from 1866 to 1875 inclusive, 

 of the precious metals in the European coun- 

 tries for which official returns are given to the 

 following amounts in millions of dollars: 

 France, 689; England, 356; Belgium, 230; 

 Russia, 209; Spain, 130; Holland, 50; Por- 

 tugal, 9 ; Sweden, 9 ; Austro-Hungary, 8 ; 

 Norway, 5 ; Italy, 1. The total absorption in 

 the above eleven countries is 1,699 million dol- 

 lars. This sum fails to agree with the statis- 

 tics of the world's production, given by Soet- 

 beer for the same period as 2,008 million dol- 

 lars, and of the absorption of Asia, calculated 

 at 562 millions. Deducting the 387 millions 

 produced in Europe, the products of extra- 

 European mines would be 1,C21 million dollars. 

 If 1,365 millions of this was absorbed in the 

 above European states, the rest of the world 

 would have but 256 millions to dispose of, or 

 306 millions less than the amount sent to the 

 East ; while the United States during the same 

 period retained 65 millions of the 669 millions 

 produced, and other gold- and silver-produc- 

 ing countries must have kept back a portion of 

 their yield. 



The effect of the present depreciation of 

 silver is to most seriously interfere with the 

 intercourse between the gold- and the silver- 



