184 



COMMERCE OF THE UNITED STATES. 



States is not included in the reports. In the 

 next five years, 1865-'69, the annual imports 

 had increased to 368 millions, but the exports, 

 275 millions, stood about where they did ten 

 years before. Toward the end of this period 

 commenced the rapid development which, 

 judged by the growth of the export trade, is 

 equaled in the, commercial history of the coun- 

 try only by the period of similar duration be- 

 tween the discovery of the California gold-fields 

 and the outbreak of the civil war. Then the 

 development was more varied. The Ameri- 

 can forests afforded the materials for the con- 

 struction of a vast merchant marine. The 

 possession of the carrying trade was exceed- 

 ingly favorable to the exportation of manufac- 

 tures, and numerous industries sprang up for 

 the supply of distant neutral markets with 

 industrial products. The increase in the ex- 

 ports of manufactures of iron and other met- 

 als, of cotton manufactures, leather goods, 

 chemical products, and other finished industrial 

 products, was twice as great between 1850 and 

 1860 as it was between 1860 and 1878. The 

 merchant fleet passed into other hands, and the 

 markets for these manifold industrial produc- 

 tions were rendered less accessible through the 

 civil war. A revolution in naval architecture, 

 whereby iron replaces wood and steam per- 

 forms more perfectly the service of the wind, 

 confirms the great manufacturing and maritime 

 nation where coal and iron are the cheapest in 

 the possession of the ship-building and carrying 

 trades, where, fortified by an enormous invested 

 capital, they must remain until the new mate- 

 rials can be produced more cheaply elsewhere, 

 since no protective measures not forbidden by 

 the law of nations can suffice to wrest them 

 away. Yet during the late new advance in 

 production the growth of manufacturing inter- 

 ests in the United States has been enormous, 

 as may be seen by comparing the lists of im- 

 ports for a series of years. Industries of the 

 most vital importance, producing the staple 

 manufactures of prime necessity and universal 

 use, for which America formerly depended 

 largely upon Europe, fostered under the wing 

 of the Government by protective tariffs, are 

 now able to nearly supply the entire needs of 

 the people. Yet the progress seems to have 

 been still more rapid in agriculture, and the 

 population of the country to be more prepon- 

 derantly engaged in agricultural production and 

 in auxiliary industries, and in the production 

 of crude commodities, than it was twenty years 

 ago. Petroleum, silver, and other new mineral 

 products occupy a similar position with refer- 

 ence to manufactures as agricultural produce. 

 The increase in the exportation of grain and 

 provisions, cotton and tobacco, has been shown 

 in the preceding article. These products of the 

 field form in a greater measure than ever be- 

 fore the main bulk of the exports, and swell 

 the total more and more each year. These four 

 articles, with mineral oil, formed in 1878 about 

 76$ per cent, of the total exports of domestic 



commodities. Whether this extension will stil 

 continue is somewhat problematical, as it has 

 been accelerated by an abnormal demand re- 

 sulting from recent failures of European crops. 

 It is possible that the present increase of food 

 production may be temporarily or permanently 

 arrested by the return of good harvests abroad. 

 It is more likely that with the increased facili- 

 ties of transportation the light and fertile soil 

 of the prairies will enable the American farm- 

 er to compete with the European, and that 

 on the return of general prosperity the con- 

 sumptive capacity of Europe will expand suffi- 

 ciently to absorb all of these and other agri- 

 cultural products now exported, and still more. 



The capacity of the country for agricultural 

 production is indefinitely greater than the crops 

 yet obtained. The total yield of cereal crops 

 in the United States in 1879, according to the 

 reports of the Agricultural Bureau at Washing- 

 ton, was 2,492,169,590 bushels, compared with 

 2,298,371,150 bushels in 1878. In wheat there 

 was an increase of from 420,122,400 to 448,- 

 750,000 bushels ; in corn from 1,388,268,750 to 

 1,601,151,570 bushels ; the other, non-exporta- 

 ble crops showed a slight falling off. The crop 

 of cotton was 4,926,285 bales, against 5,200,000 

 bales in 1878. The tobacco yield amounted to 

 384,059,659 Ibs. The potato crop was 181,- 

 869,340 bushels, or 57,000,000 bushels more 

 than in 1878. The yield per acre was for wheat 

 13-7, for corn 30-2, and for potatoes 98'9 bush- 

 els; for cotton 176, and for tobacco 779 Ibs. 



If agricultural production should prove in- 

 capable of further development, if it should be 

 fated to relapse and decline, the fortunes of the 

 manufacturing industries will assume greater 

 importance, and then the inquiry will press it- 

 self on the public mind whether the protected 

 industries are in position, or will soon be in 

 position, to hold their own in the open market, 

 to produce an exchangeable equivalent for the 

 foreign luxuries demanded by the people, and 

 maintain the position of America among com- 

 mercial nations. If, on the other hand, the 

 foreign demand for the products of the soil 

 should continue to increase, the same question 

 may be pushed to a speedier solution, as the 

 waxing agricultural interest may demand that 

 the markets should be cleared for the cheapest 

 goods and thrown open to all comers. That 

 there are American manufactures which are 

 able to compete in the neutral markets and in 

 Europe with the products of the older manu- 

 facturing nations is seen in the subjoined table 

 of the exports of the articles which are classed 

 as manufactures in the official reports of the 

 Treasury Department, for the years 1850, 1860, 

 1870, 1872, 1874, 1876, and 1878. This group 

 of articles formed in 1850 11 per cent, of the 

 total exports of domestic merchandise, in 1860 

 not quite 13 J per cent., in 1870 something less 

 than 20-J- per cent., in 1872 19 per cent., in 

 1874 less than 18^ per cent., in 1876 nearly 

 21 per cent., and in 1878 a little under 20 per 

 cent. : 



