AFGHANISTAN. 



15 



Sarakhs along the Heri Rud as far as Kiafir 

 Kaleh, the point where the Meshed-Herat road 

 crosses the frontier line. 



The Attitude of other Powers. The English 

 speculated on a wide-spread disaffection in 

 Russia which would cripple the empire in the 

 event of war. If they could land in Georgia, 

 they expected that a rising of the whole Cau- 

 casus would take place, and the Russian com- 

 munications with Asia would be broken. The 

 Turkomans were represented as embittered by 

 oppression, or easily to be bought off from their 

 allegiance. Turkey they looked upon as their 

 necessary ally. Austria was counted upon for 

 a diversion in the Balkan principalities, while 

 the Magyars were thought to be eager to seize 

 upon Poland and to strike a blow at Russia out 

 of revenge for old wrongs. The existing cool- 

 ness with Germany and her rigidly pacific pol- 

 icy gave them no expectation of assistance from 

 her, but rather of efforts to avert or circum- 

 scribe the conflict. The large German inter- 

 est in Russian loans rendered such efforts the 

 more probable. The financial embarrassments 

 of Russia were supposed to be so great as to 

 deprive her perhaps of the means, and certain- 

 ly of the will, to carry on a great war. The 

 Russians held as slight an opinion of the abil- 

 ity of the English to engage in the struggle, 

 owing to the smallness of their army and the 

 backward state of their armaments. Against 

 an immediate conflict on the Afghan frontier 

 they felt secure, and thought that, before that 

 could come, Afghanistan would go to pieces and 

 the richest provinces of the country fall under 

 Russian sway. Though the Afghan ruler was 

 controlled by English influences, or rather paid 

 to keep quiet, Russia might again acquire the 

 ascendency she had in the times of Dost Mo- 

 hammed and Shere Ali. Assertions were re- 

 peatedly made by Russian officials and publicists 

 that Abdurrahman was playing a double game. 

 The English counted further that China would 

 ally herself with England in order to save Corea 

 from invasion and the seizure of her harbors 

 for a Russian naval base, and to recover Mant- 

 chooria. 



The Russian position in the controversy re- 

 ceived actually the moral support of the Aus- 

 tro-German alliance. Confident of this support, 

 the Russian Cabinet could afford to disregard 

 the warlike threats of England, and maintain 

 firmly the ground taken in the boundary dis- 

 pute. Evidence transpired that the German 

 Chancellor was taking measures to prevent an 

 immediate conflict. However little Germany 

 might object to the northern Colossus that 

 hemmed her growth in eastern Europe and 

 the arrogant naval power that thwarted her 

 aspirations over seas wasting their energies in 

 a localized conflict in central Asia, she could 

 not suffer the torch of war to be kindled in 

 Europe. If Germany and Austria, according 

 to their apparent intention, compelled Turkey 

 to keep the Dardanelles closed against the Eng- 

 lish fleet, Great Britain could nowhere reach 



her antagonist to deliver a telling blow. The 

 whole case of the English depended on the de- 

 lusive figment of a u strong, united, and friend- 

 ly Afghanistan." To attempt to march an 

 army to the northern frontier of Afghanistan 

 to battle for the neutralization of the disputed 

 strip of country, was out of the question. The 

 reconquest and thorough subjugation of the 

 Afghans would be first necessary. Such an 

 attempt would enable Russia to absorb the sub- 

 ject races of northern Afghanistan without a 

 struggle, and fix the boundary along the Hin- 

 doo-Koosh, including whatever strategical posi- 

 tions she chose to possess herself of, if it did 

 not drive the Afghans into the arms of Russia 

 and enable her to chase the English across the 

 Suleiman range and carry the war into India 

 4 ' under the banner of plunder and carnage, 

 after the manner of Tamerlane." The false 

 and helpless position into which English diplo- 

 macy was betrayed gave the British side of 

 the controversy the appearance of hypocritical 

 bluster intended mainly to impress the Ameer 

 and the people of India. 



It was reported that the German and Aus- 

 trian ambassadors informed the Porte in April 

 that if Turkey allowed either the British or 

 the Russian fleet to pass the Dardanelles, the 

 Treaty of Berlin would eo ipso be annulled, and 

 that Germany and Austria would considerthem- 

 selves free from every engagement. They de- 

 clared further that the Porte would have to 

 make its neutrality respected by its own re- 

 sources, and that the result would be the same 

 if either belligerent forced the passage of the 

 Dardanelles. 



The Swedish Government began to arm its 

 fleet and to construct batteries for the purpose 

 of preventing England from establishing a coal- 

 ing-station in Gotland. The Baltic powers 

 were expected to unite in enforcing the neu- 

 trality of the sound. The Porte provided 

 against eventualities by fortifying Kars and or- 

 dering arms and ammunition. 



While England and India were stirred with 

 war preparations, preliminary arrangements 

 for mobilization were quietly made in Russia. 

 The Russian press contemptuously character- 

 ized the feverish preparations of Great Britain 

 as childish threats. Since the beginning of the 

 year only a slight movement of troops had 

 taken place, principally from Turkistan to the 

 Afghan frontier. A few battalions only had 

 crossed the Caspian. The force on the Afghan 

 frontier in May was reported as follows: In 

 Khaka, 100 infantry, 400 cavalry, and 3 guns ; 

 at Surakhs, 300 infantry, 400 cavalry, and 3 

 guns ; at Pul-i-Khatum, 200 infantry and 100 

 cavalry; at Kushid Kala, 2,020 infantry, 800 

 cavalry, and 4 guns ; between Kushid Kala and 

 Merv, 2,060 infantry, 600 cavalry, and 4 guns ; 

 near Penjdeh, 1,200 infantry, 800 cavalry, and 

 4 guns; at Zulfikar, 400 infantry; and at 

 Akrobat. 200 cavalry. 



After the Penjdeh incident war prepara- 

 tions proceeded with greater haste. Two di- 



