CONGRESS. (SPECIAL SESSION THE SHERMAN ACT.) 



886 



Probably if wise men, now alive, had been con- 

 sult^! in the formation of the nature of man- 

 kind ill. Tr would not have been these fluctua- 

 tion- which now disturb us, and which disfigure 

 the history of the time. If we could have had 

 that perfection of wisdom which is exhibited, so 

 fur as I have ever known, only in a greenback 

 oral ion, we should have the human race proceed- 

 ing on the upward grade steadily, without falter- 

 ini; and without relapse. 



" But, unfortunately, human nature was not 

 franu'd in that way. Instead of a continuous 

 upward movement, always rising, always going 

 forward, the movement of the human race seems 

 to be a series of upward starts and of falls of al- 

 most proportionate length. The general prog- 

 ress has always been onward, but there have 

 been many times when the movement has seemed 

 to be to the rear. 



" In the history of civilized nations these al- 

 ternations have not been infrequent. The great 

 rises and the great falls have extended over long 

 periods of time. At intervals there have been 

 minor falls as well as minor upliftings. We 

 seem now to be at the beginning of one of those 

 declines, the like of which happens after a long 

 period. Unless all indications fail, we are in a 

 situation very much like that which afflicted 

 England in 1793 and in 1825, and which began 

 to afflict us in the year 1873. 



"After each long period of recuperation some- 

 thing starts the confidence of the human race in 

 itself and the confidence of the nation in itself, 

 and men feel a sudden courage to undertake all 

 enterprises and to indulge in every effort tend- 

 ing to progress. Each one seems to encourage 

 the other. Each enterprise seems to be an assist- 

 ance to the other. The result is, that for a 

 series of years prosperity seems to increase ; men 

 are busy, capital is busy, and prosperity without 

 limit seems to be within the reach of the race 

 and of the nation. 



" Suddenly, from some cause entirely unan- 

 ticipated, a doubt is cast upon the reality of the 

 progress which has been made. Something 

 awakens the element of caution in the race or 

 nation, and, thereupon, rapidly and steadily, con- 

 fidence disappears. Men feel that it is necessary 

 to take an exact observation of the situation be- 

 fore resuming strenuous efforts. When that 

 hour arrives there is no possibility of retreat or 

 of change. 



" The race or the nation has determined to ex- 

 amine into its condition, and the result is appar- 

 ent disaster, misfortune, defeat, destruction of 

 industries, and a general paralysis of business 

 and of labor. There is a general liquidation of 

 human affairs. Each man discovers what he is 

 really worth, and the nation finds precisely what 

 its absolute wants and needs are. If the period 

 <>f prosperity could be expressed in a single word, 

 that word would be confidence ; and if the period 

 of adversity, as we call it, could be expressed in 

 a single word, that word would be distrust. 



" During the period of progress, during the 

 period of increased endeavor, where all capital is 

 employed and everv man is at work, confidence 

 reigns supreme. Every man believes in his own 

 success and in the success of his neighbor. Con- 

 sequently, he is free to take goods and property 

 at the general valuation; and the people who 



sell property are ready to take the checks and 



instruments by which property is transferred. 

 When the period of doubt sets in values become 

 uncertain, because it is felt that a readjustment 

 must be had. Checks and evidences of transfer 

 are scrutinized with care, because men who were 

 wealthy vesterday may be poor to-day. 



" So, also, production ceases because the pro- 

 ducer has great doubts whether the production 

 of his mill or his workshop will be capable of 

 sale, and, above all, whether he will gather in 

 the proper payment. How far this element of 

 distrust may go depends upon the seriousness of 

 the previous inflation of values ; and after a time, 

 when men find precisely how they are situated 

 themselves, and now their neighbors are placed, 

 there begins slowly to revive the confidence 

 which distinguished the former period, in small 

 measure at first, and afterward in larger measure, 

 until finally we reach another period, where con- 

 fidence reigns and productiveness is at its ut- 

 most. 



" This alternation between extreme production 

 and production reduced to its lowest terms is 

 something which the philanthropist may regard 

 with horror, but which the man who has ob- 

 served the history of the world is obliged to re- 

 gard with tolerance. While these fluctuations 

 occur often in the history of the human race, 

 each one occurs from its own separate and 

 special cause. 



" In former times they used to be more es- 

 pecially confined to each particular country and 

 were not simultaneous, but modern times have 

 bound the earth together, so that it is impossi- 

 ble for even the greatest nation to disregard the 

 other nations of the earth. The railroad has 

 diminished distance and the telegraph has oblit- 

 erated time. The ocean steamers plying be- 

 tween the different hemispheres, the trains of 

 cars which sweep across the continents, have 

 made business a far different thing from what it 

 was in the earlier sges. 



" Without undertaking to give the particulars 

 of the change, it is enough to say that the world, 

 which in the days of Magellan it required three 

 years to circumnavigate, can be circumnavigated 

 to-day in a period of two months. This binding 

 together of the whole world by obliteration of 

 time and distance has bound together the busi- 

 ness of the world, and hence these periodic 

 changes occur in greater or less measure through- 

 out the world, not always exactly simultaneous, 

 but always more or less sympathetic. 



" Nevertheless, in each particular nation the 

 cause is peculiar to itself. Each nation produces 

 its own means of temporary prosperity ; also its 

 own causes for temporary depression. The fact 

 that these depressions are nearly simultaneous 

 does not in any way militate against the sugges- 

 tions just made. If any one desires to notice 

 the connection between the different countries 

 he has only to go back to the crisis which occurred 

 in the year 1890. It was found that there was a 

 great scarcity of monev in the United States, so 

 great that under the influence of universal clamor 

 more than forty millions of currency were let 

 loose from the "United States Treasury among 

 the people of the United States. 



" I do not think at the time that any one here 

 fully comprehended the cause, altho'ugh some 



