THE GREAT UNPROGRESSIVE PEOPLE 367 



least, to the same causes that produce loss of physical energy in 

 the upper classes in Europe and necessitate continual recruiting 

 from below. But in China the rich are too few in proportion to 

 the huge masses of the poor to make the demand for unim- 

 poverished blood an appreciable one. Practically we may leave 

 the rich out of sight and consider the Chinese as a nation of poor 

 men, of whom most are peasants. 



If we have succeeded in finding the true explanation of China's Pos 

 stagnation and of the long duration of her civilisation, we ought 

 to be able to forecast to some extent the results of the penetration 

 of European methods and ideas. Railways are being built and 

 much of the country seems likely to be opened to commerce to 

 an extent unknown hitherto. This will bring with it a gradual 

 break-up of the simply organised peasant society. There will 

 be new facilities for various vices and it may safely be said that 

 the Chinaman's morality will not at first prove equal to the 

 strain. But it is under the stress of constantly changing 

 conditions that the moral character of a nation grows strong. 

 It is with nations as with men. Trials bring out the best in 

 them, if they do not altogether succumb. China may rouse 

 herself from her lethargy to combat the evils that will before 

 many years beset her. And it is possible that after much 

 degradation she may prove capable of a higher civilisation. 

 For of one thing we may be sure : the Chinese will not die out 

 in the presence of European fire-water and European diseases. 

 Fire-water they have of their own and are sober. And diseases 

 their own way of life has braced them to withstand. Already 

 some few show signs of assimilating ideas that come to them 

 from Europe, and before long the torpid bulk is likely to be 

 goaded into life by stimuli such as it has not felt for many 

 centuries. The barriers have been broken down and China, no 

 longer insulated, must play a part of some sort in the world. 

 But it is possible that measures will be taken that may arrest 

 progress while at the outset seeming to do nothing but remove 

 great evils. The mandarins may be replaced by English or 

 other European officials, and great will be the immediate gain : 

 western honesty will take the place of oriental rottenness, for 



