244 



FINANCIAL REVIEW OF 1902. 



The Crops. Crop conditions were unfavor- 

 able early in the year, owing to drought in the 

 winter-wheat States, and reports of serious dam- 

 age from this cause were numerous. The general 

 average of this grain reported on April 1 by the 

 Bureau of Agriculture was only 78.7 per cent., 

 against 91.7 per cent, at the corresponding date 

 in the previous year. Midsummer heat was expe- 

 rienced in some sections on the 18th and the 20th, 

 and much injury resulted. This term of heat 

 was, however, not prolonged, and it was followed 

 by rains and cooler weather, and in the succeed- 

 ing month conditions were more favorable. The 

 report of the Bureau of Agriculture showing the 

 state of the crops on June 1 was generally satis- 

 factory, though not so good as had been ex- 

 pected, the average of winter wheat being about 

 equal to that on May 1 ; at the same time there 

 was a decrease of about 5,000,000 in the acreage 

 planted. The condition of spring wheat was, 

 however, very high, it being 95.4 per cent, on 

 June 1 against 92 at the same date in 1901. 

 There were general rains during the month, and 

 at the close these rains were excessive in some 

 sections, causing much damage. The crop situa- 

 tion in July was in marked contrast with that 

 of the year before; instead of drought and con- 

 tinued impairment there were abundant rains. 

 The percentage of condition shown by the official 

 reports on July 1 was quite favorable, and an 

 increase of about 3,500,000 in the acreage was 

 shown in corn. At the end of the month esti- 

 mates were made that the yield of this cereal 

 would be not far from 2,500,000,000 bushels. One 

 feature in the following month was a corner in 

 July deliveries of corn, the speculators taking ad- 

 vantage of the short crop of the previous year 

 and of the small stocks in the market to advance 

 the price. This was sharply moved upward to 

 85 cents in Chicago and 90 cents in New York 

 by July 8. Attracted by these high prices, large 

 supplies of corn were sent to Chicago from those 

 sections where reserves were fairly abundant, and 

 some of the cereal was reshipped from Eastern 

 ports, where it was awaiting export to Europe. 

 The prjce sharply broke, under the pressure of 

 these unexpected offerings, to 65J cents at Chi- 

 cago, and by the close of the month it fell to 55 

 cents. The speculators in corn, after the above- 

 noted break, manipulated an advance in oats, 

 forcing the price to 72 cents by the 25th. against 

 53 at the beginning of the month. Wheat values 

 were not greatly affected by these corners, and 

 the tendency was downward on reports of large 

 crops abroad and favorable prospects at home. 

 The condition of all grains was very satisfactory 

 in August. The general average of* corn was re- 

 ported on the 1st at 80.5 per cent, against 54 

 at the same time last year, and the indications 



then pointed to a yield of fully 2.600,000,000 bush- 

 els. In Kansas the condition was 103 against 19 

 in 1901, in Missouri 100 against 29, and in Ne- 

 braska 101 against 30. The harvest began under 

 favorable conditions, and as it progressed the re- 

 ports of actual yield seemed generally to confirm 

 previous estimates. Not only was the corn-crop 

 almost unprecedented in volume, but the yield 

 of wheat was enormous, far exceeding the most 

 sanguine expectations, and in some States it was 

 the largest ever recorded. When the crops began 

 to move freely a serious shortage of railroad 

 transportation facilities was experienced, but this 

 difficulty was soon remedied. As was the case 

 in the previous year, ocean freights were low, 

 chiefly because the steamers which brought coal 

 from Europe in the fall were in active competi- 

 tion with the regular lines for return cargoes, 

 thus forcing rates downward to almost unprece- 

 dentedly low figures. 



Estimates in November of the probable yield 

 of cereals indicated a crop of 2,542,516,000 bush- 

 els of corn, of 620,895,000 of wheat, of 988,632,000 

 of oats, of 33,626,000 of rye, and of 135,169,000 

 of barley. 



While the grain-crops were abundant the yield 

 of cotton was irregular, and considerable damage 

 was caused in Texas and in other States by 

 drought. The Agricultural Department reported 

 the general condition Sept. 4 at only 64 per cent. 

 There was a slight improvement during that 

 month, but the outlook was not regarded as 

 favorable, and fears were entertained of an early 

 frost; this encouraged a bull speculation, to 

 which the Liverpool market responded. The 

 official report of Oct. 1 placed the general condi- 

 tion at 58.3 per cent., and this gave a further 

 impetus to the rise in prices, which did not ap- 

 pear to be checked by subsequent more favorable 

 reports indicating a good growth of the late 

 crop; it was then estimated by a prominent 

 member of the trade that the yield for the cur- 

 rent season would be about 11,300,000 bales. To- 

 ward the end of October killing frosts appeared in 

 some sections, especially west of the Mississippi, 

 checking the growth of late cotton; this news, 

 however, did not materially advance the price, 

 for traders were disposed to realize. 



Foreign Exchange. The exports of domes- 

 tic and foreign merchandise for twelve months 

 ending Nov. 30, 1902, were $124,850,554 below 

 those to the same date in 1901, and the imports 

 of merchandise were $85,788,971 greater. The ex- 

 cess of merchandise exports over imports for the 

 twelve months was $394.496.815, against $<>or>.- 

 136,340 for the corresponding period in 1901. The 

 excess of exports over imports of merchandise 

 and gold and silver coin and bullion for twelve 

 months was $411,720,929, against $630,02t). ( .>'2!t 

 for the same time in 1901. Gold imports were 

 $4.736,581 in excess of exports for twelve months 

 in 1902, against $1.906.620 imports over exports 

 for the corresponding period in 1901. 



The dominating influence in the foreign-ex- 

 change market during this year was the almost 

 continuous borrowing by our bankers from those 

 of Europe, which operations began to be impor- 

 tant in June of the previous year. Late in Janu- 

 ary the Bank of England rate of discount was re- 

 duced from 4 per cent, to 3* per cent., and there 

 was a further reduction in the first week in Feb- 

 ruary to 3 per cent. Discounts at Continental 

 centers were easy, and money ruled at such low 

 rates at Paris that French bankers largely in- 

 creased their investments in sterling and in other 

 securities in London, and otherwise sought em- 

 ployment for their funds. At the same time 



