THi: INFLUENCE OF CROPS UPON BUSINESS 17 



greater significance for general business than that of any of our 

 other crops, and ought naturally to be looked to as the source of 

 more considerable trade fluctuations. 



From certain points of view, however, the crop which is most 

 largely exported might be expected to affect trade conditions the 

 most seriously in that its fluctuations may induce changes in the 

 balance of trade, in the international movement of gold, and in 

 the bank reserves. A falling off in such a crop might rapidly re- 

 verse our trade balance, causing gold exports and a reduction in 

 the cash holdings of our financial centers, and so might produce a 

 serious stringency in the money market, while the success of such a 

 crop, on the other hand, would not improbably result in an inflow 

 of gold, the swelling of the bank reserves, and so might stimulate 

 a spirit of confidence and introduce a period of buoyant expansion.' 

 ked from this point of view, the cotton crop would at first 

 glance appear the most important ; for, if corn is our leading 

 product, cotton is our leading export. 



The value of our cotton exports far exceeds the value of the 

 exports of any other article. In i .irs our cotton exports 



1 Millions of dollars. 



