68 A NATIONAL PLAN FOR AMERICAN FORESTRY 



That of the most critical watershed conditions. 



And, finally, that of the largest part of the deteriorated western 

 forest ranges. 



All of this makes continued chief reliance on private lands exceed- 

 ingly precarious, despite their much larger area and better quality. 



A large shift from private to public ownership seems to be the only 

 way to carry out such a program as planting 25 million acres in the 

 next 20 years. 



Or to increase the area under intensive forestry at from 1 to 1% 

 million acres annually to reach 70 or 100 million acres by the year 

 2000. 



Or to increase the area under extensive forestry by 2^ to 3% 

 million acres annually to reach 279 or 399 million. 



Or to enlarge the area under protection by 191 million acres to a 

 total of 512, and to raise the ratio of actual to allowable burn to some- 

 thing approaching 1 to 1. 



Or on 308 million acres of major and an additional 141 million of 

 moderate forest influence to obtain fully satisfactory watershed 

 protection. 



Or to obtain satisfactory conditions on the minimum of 45 million 

 acres which should be set aside for forest recreation. 



Public ownership seems, therefore, to offer the only assured means 

 of reaching the major forestry objectives of full forest land use, ade- 

 quate supplies of forest products, and the full economic and social 

 benefits of both, and also to make it feasible to carry out anything 

 approaching the national planning necessary. 



So, in fact, it offers the only full opportunity for the continuation 

 of private initiative. 



High initial costs should eventually under good management be 

 offset, and more than offset, by direct financial returns and large 

 indirect returns. The enterprise should eventually be self -liquidating 

 from the public standpoint. 



The preceding considerations, primarily the lack of assurance of 

 obtaining under private ownership the full results needed in the 

 public interest, and the probability of costs under public regulation, 

 even though successful, which would fall little below public owner- 

 ship, make it conclusive that a large expansion in public ownership 

 offers the greatest assurance of meeting the public interest at probably 

 the lowest ultimate net cost. 



THE PUBLIC OWNERSHIP RECOMMENDED 



Such considerations seem fully to justify the recommendation 

 that public ownership be increased by a total area of about 224 

 million acres. 



Public ownership of noncommercial forest lands should be enlarged 

 by slightly less than 30 million acres to 92, this primarily for water- 

 shed protection. 



That of commercial forest lands should be enlarged to meet com- 

 bined timber production, watershed protection, recreation, and gen- 

 eral economic and social needs by about 194 million acres, including 

 slightly less than 32 minion acres of abandoned farm lands. This 

 would mean public holdings of 293 million acres, or about three fifths 

 instead of the present one fifth of the total area of commercial forest. 

 (Figs. 25 and 26.) 



