A NATIONAL PLAN FOR AMERICAN FORESTRY 

 THE POSSIBLE INCOME FROM MANAGED FOREST LANDS 



73 



In forecasting possible income a situation different from that now 

 existing must be visualized. Over rapid exploitation of virgin timber 

 rather than continuous production of organized forest properties, has 

 created a false impression that timber supplies are still abundant. 



The reduction of the growing stock for the entire East far below 

 that necessary for full productivity and a current rate of growth well 

 below market requirements indicate that whenever most forests are 

 placed on a sustained yield basis the market condition will be one of 

 scarcity rather than of surplus. The time when these favorable 

 market conditions will occur depends in part on the rate of abandon- 

 ment of the liquidation policy, or if it is not abandoned, when liqui- 

 dation of the major portion of private holdings is completed. 



Owing to uncertain ties -such as this no accurate forecasts can be 

 made of the time when full financial returns can be obtained from 

 timber management. In some favorably situated forests these returns 

 can be realized quickly without waiting for cessation of the liquidation 

 process. In forests still endowed with growing stock, the returns 

 might be realized within 20 to 40 years. But areas devoid of growing 

 stock cannot be brought to full productivity in less than 50 to 80 

 years. 



Estimated returns from timber management are based primarily 

 on the stumpage values of 1928 to 1930. Regional growth, acreages 

 of intensive and extensive timber management, the distribution of 

 production to private, State, and Federal activity are those set up 

 for the purposes of this report. 



The possible gross financial returns from a timber management pro- 

 gram to produce 17 to 18 billion cubic feet annually, not including 

 returns from logging, manufacturing, etc., are shown in table 5. Pos- 

 sible returns for grazing, recreational, and other uses are also shown. 

 For public forests a conservative estimate is included for recreational 

 use and watershed management based on the principle that the chief 

 beneficiaries should bear a commensurate part of the cost. 



TABLE 5. Estimated possible annual returns from Federal, State and local, public 

 and private timber management and other.forest uses and services 



These possible rates of income from a fully restored and productive 

 forest resource would permit ample expenditures for forest protec- 

 tion and other production costs and still leave net returns well in 

 excess of $400,000,000 to $500,000,000 annually. 



Such returns indicate a capital value of $10,000,000,000 or more 

 for the forests, not including the large manufacturing and other de- 



