A NATIONAL PLAN FOR AMERICAN FORESTRY 163 



The situation with respect to exports to other parts of the world, 

 such as the Orient, is even more difficult to appraise. 



Considering these factors, it appears reasonable to assume that 

 there will be no significant change in aggregate per capita consumption 

 of agricultural products, and as a result our domestic consumption 

 will increase in proportion to the population; and that agricultural 

 exports will remain equivalent to 5-15 percent of the Nation's pro- 

 duction. This has been the situation for the past 25 years, except 

 that exports exceeded 15 percent of production during the few years 

 of, and immediately following, the World War. 



Total agricultural production, although fluctuating, has increased 

 at very nearly the same rate as population during the period since 1908. 

 If total agricultural production should continue to keep pace with 

 population it will probably not, however, increase in this and the next 

 decade at the rate it has in the past two decades. As has been stated, 

 students of population expect that, unless immigration restrictions 

 are removed, the population will be only about 8 percent greater in 

 1940 and possibly 14 percent greater in 1950 than, in 1930. This 

 increase compares with an increase of 16 percent between 1920 and 

 1930 and an increase of 33 percent between 1910 and 1930. 



The increase in agricultural land required to provide this additional 

 production will depend upon several factors which will be discussed 

 later. It seems very probable that it will not be necessary to increase 

 the total area of agricultural land even 8 percent between 1930 and 

 1940, nor 14 percent by 1950, to provide for this additional supply. 

 In the decade, 1920 to 1930, agricultural production 6 increased 20 per- 

 cent and for the two decades, 1910 to 1930, approximately 35 percent. 



This increase in agricultural production in the United States was 

 secured with a net increase in agricultural land in farms in the coun- 

 try as a whole of only 6 percent during the last decade and of only 

 18 percent during the two decades. 6 The area of crop land increased 

 less rapidly. In the decade, 1920 to 1930, the area in crops har- 

 vested increased very little, if at all, 7 and in the 2 decades since 

 1910, it increased approximately 13 percent. It is well within the 

 realm of possibility, if not probability, to increase agricultural produc- 

 tion 8 percent without any addition to the area of agricultural land. 



Technical changes affecting agriculture have made it possible to 

 increase agricultural production without increasing the agricultural 

 area to the same extent. This increase in production is not due in 

 any appreciable extent to increased crop yields per acre. For the 

 Nation as a whole the composite acre yields of the leading crops has 

 not increased since the period 1905-9. Four other factors have been 

 largely responsible for agricultural production expanding more rap- 

 idly than the agricultural area. These are (1) the great decline in 

 horses and mules, which has released for the production of human 

 food large areas formerly required to produce feed for the work stock ; 

 (2) the increased efficiency in the production of meat and milk, much 

 less feed being used now per pound of product, thus requiring less 



8 By agricultural production is meant the not production available for human consumption and for 

 export. The production of feed crops consumed by domestic livestock is deducted from total crop 

 production. 



6 This increase in agricultural land was n9minal rather than real, for nearly all the increase has occurred 

 in the Great Plains region by the inclusion in farms of former range land. 



7 The total area in harvested crops as reported by the census is not directly comparable one census year 

 with another. The acreage of comparable crops for 1929 shows a slight decline from 1919 as reported by 

 the census. The estimates of the Department of Agriculture for the same years show a slight increase. 

 The change according to either estimate is less than 1 percent. 



