A NATIONAL PLAN FOE AMERICAN FORESTRY 



223 



favorable factors for the practice of forestry. But, on the other hand, 

 because of the practical exhaustion of old-growth supplies and the 

 large proportion of the area with growth below cordwood size or with 

 none at all, the high ratios of drain to growth 4.5 to 1 for saw 

 timber and 1.6 to 1 for all timber signify a progressive impoverish- 

 ment of a forest capital or growing stock already seriously depleted. 

 Consequently, it would appear that the welfare of the forest 

 resources with saw timber the main object of management can 

 only be safeguarded by a drastic reduction in saw-timber drain in 

 the Lake-Central-South section. Indeed, as will be shown later, a 

 substantial reduction in the lumber cut below that for the 1925-29 

 period appears to be inevitable. 



THE SIGNIFICANCE OF RECENT TRENDS TO FUTURE GROWTH 



It is, of course, impossible to forecast all the factors that will 

 influence future growth totals, even by 1950, and no attempt will be 

 made to do so. The growth figures in table 19 are in no way intended 

 as a forecast. The effect of certain assumptions as to fire protection 

 and drain can, however, be roughly estimated. Better fire protection, 

 and insect and disease control, would tend to hasten the restocking of 

 cut-over areas, and to increase growth in all classes of stands. Twenty 

 years, however, is too short a period for such improvements to have 

 much effect upon annual growth of saw timber and cordwood. More- 

 over, it is wholly unlikely that abnormal losses from fire or other 

 causes will be wholly eliminated. 



TABLE 19. Estimated possible current annual growth and average annual drain as 

 of 1950 compared to those on present commercial forest areas l 



1 Based on arbitrary assumptions as to drain. 



Cutting in the East at whatever rate in excess of annual growth 

 would tend to restrict future growth by depleting the growing stock 

 capable of producing merchantable material. Severe dram upon the 

 cordwood stands would limit the acreage advancing from cordwood 



