246 A- NATIONAL PLAN FOB AMERICAN FORESTRY 



part of the needed data. Unfortunately the record of past experience 

 is none too good, and the present investigation emphasizes the 

 importance of better statistics of requirements and more systematic 

 study of the factors affecting them. 



COMMODITIES CLASSIFIED 



The report is confined to the more important industrial products 

 and to the use of wood for domestic fuel, omitting products which 

 have only minor influence on the volume of demand. Lumber, which 

 includes material for construction and for boxes, furniture, vehicles, 

 railroad cars, woodenware, toys, and other factory products, repre- 

 sents by far the largest industrial consumption of timber, and is of 

 the greatest present concern. Pulp wood comes next. While far 

 below lumber in importance if gaged by quantity of timber con- 

 sumed, it is of vast importance when measured by value of products 

 and the part that pulp products play in our civilization. Railroad 

 ties are important both as to quantity of timber consumed and 

 service rendered. In naval stores (turpentine and rosin), the United 

 States is the principal world producer, exporting almost twice as 

 much as all other countries combined. These five classes of forest 

 products lumber, pulpwood, railroad ties, fuel wood, and naval 

 stores will be the principal subject of discussion. 



The study is carried only through 1929 for most items, partly 

 because data for later years are not complete, but more particularly 

 because the present depression overshadows completely all other fac- 

 tors in commodity consumption since that year. The present low 

 consumption, as a phase of the depression, is a general condition that 

 does not in itself indicate a permanent change for one commodity any 

 more than for another. For instance, the decline of 50 percent in 

 lumber consumption from 1929 to 1931 should not be confused with 

 the normal declining trend which will be shown to have prevailed 

 since 1906. Other manufacturers have experienced abnormal declines 

 since 1929, and there seems no reason for assuming that lumber prod- 

 ucts will not recover from the effects of the depression in proportion 

 to the recovery of all other commodities. 



LUMBER CONSUMPTION TRENDS 

 STATISTICAL 



From 1809 to 1906 the trend of lumber consumption in the United 

 States was constantly upward; since 1906 it has been downward, both 

 per capita and in the aggregate. Consumption for the years 1809 to 

 1931 is shown in table 1 by balancing production, imports, exports, 

 and changes in stocks. In figure 1 the total and per capita lumber 

 consumption trends since 1899 are shown in relation to the trend for 

 all manufactures and the population curve. Total lumber consump- 

 tion declined from a maximum of approximately 45 billion board feet 

 in 1906 to 34 billion in 1929. While there may be some question as 

 to whether 1929 was a "normal " year in view of a generally recognized 

 depression in agriculture, the collapse of the stock market, and other 

 adverse factors, yet there is reason to believe, as explained later, that 

 lumber consumption in that year was approximately of the expected 

 normal proportions. The more precipitous drop since 1929 registers 



