250 A NATIONAL PLAN FOR AMERICAN FORESTRY 



It is true that since 1910 there has been a pronounced shifting of 

 farm location, as illustrated for an intermediate 5-year period by 

 figure 2. Abandonment in the eastern "general-farm" region has 

 been concomitant with acquisition in the western " grain-farm" 

 region. But although farm expansion from 1910 to 1930 may have 

 offset farm abandonment as to the number of farms, a corresponding 

 offset does not apply when the value of buildings is considered. In 

 the regions of abandonment farm buildings averaged $2,700 to $3,100 

 in value, but in the regions of expansion they averaged only $700 to 

 $2,200. This difference in value of improvements involves a corre- 

 sponding difference in building-material requirements, which would 

 make itself felt most acutely in the item of lumber. 



AGRICULTURAL DEPRESSION 



In addition to the halt in agricultural expansion, and of greater 

 significance in the 1928 rural lumber consumption as estimated in 

 table 3, was the enforced curtailment in normal repairs and replace- 

 ments on account of the agricultural depression that set in imme- 

 diately after the World War. Such records as are available indicate 

 that expenditures for building repair and replacement on the farms 

 in 1928 were about half those for 1912, after correcting for price 

 index. 



On the pre-war estimate of 2,000 feet per farm as the normal annual 

 lumber requirements for repairs, and new construction, a total of 

 12% billion board feet may be figured as required for the Nation's 

 6,400,000 farms in 1912. Another 2% billion feet annually may be 

 added for rural other than farm construction, making the total rural 

 lumber consumption for 1912 about 15K billion board feet. 1 If, as ex- 

 plained later, the drop in agricultural expansion reduced this by 4} bil- 

 lion board feet a year, there would remain a requirement of 1 1 billion 

 board feet for normal repair and replacement. When again approxi- 

 mately half of this amount is deducted for the loss due to post-war 

 agricultural depression, an estimated rural consumption of only some 

 5K billion board feet remains for 1928. 



This, it is believed, is a fairly dependable check on the figure of 

 5% billion board feet assumed in table 3, and its significance does not 

 rest on the accuracy of the division as between agricultural expansion 

 and depression. Decline in lumber consumption due to slowing up 

 of agricultural expansion may have been less than 4} billion board 

 feet and the decline due to post-war depression more than 5% billion 

 board feet, but the conclusion is inescapable that these two conditions 

 are the major factors in declining rural lumber consumption trends 

 since 1912. 



COMPETITION OF MATERIALS IN URBAN CONSTRUCTION 

 RESIDENTIAL 



Urban and rural-urban 2 population, increasing at the rate of 

 2 million inhabitants annually from 1920 to 1928, set up a requirement 

 for some 480,000 new family-dwelling accommodations annually. 

 There was also an accumulated shortage up to 1921 estimated at 



1 This is the estimate generally used for rural lumber consumption as of that period, and is the one used 

 in table 3. 



2 Rural-urban is that part of the population, adjacent to urban centers, which is urban in character but 

 outside the city limits. 



