256 



A NATIONAL PLAN FOR AMERICAN FORESTRY 



MINOR FACTORY ITEMS 



The more conspicuous changes in minor factory items have occurred 

 as the result of social and economic changes and in many instances 

 are largely compensatory. For example, the development of the 

 automobile and motor truck vastly curtailed buggy and wagon 

 requirements, but in so doing it actually increased the use of wood. 

 In fact, most of these developments indicate, not the direct competi- 

 tion of other materials with wood, but rather a change in services 

 which producers of lumber and wood products may or may not have 

 been prepared to meet. 



In some of the most modern and popular items, an upward trend 

 of wood consumption as between 1912 and 1928 may be confusing. 

 Thus, the annual production of motor vehicles increased 21 percent 

 from 1924 to 1928, but lumber consumption in motor vehicles dropped 

 4 percent, indicating a decline in amount of lumber per vehicle. 

 Similarly, while consumption of lumber for airplanes has increased 

 since 1912, the amount of wood per plane has decreased in favor of 

 other materials. 



The amount of plumbing has increased from 1912 to 1928, but the 

 use of lumber for plumber's work has decreased, as table 4 shows. 

 Manufacture of laundry appliances has more than doubled during 

 the period, but the amount of lumber used in such appliances shrunk 

 one half. The same tendencies may be even more pronounced in 

 other products. 



TENTATIVE NORMAL LUMBER REQUIREMENTS 



Table 5 presents an estimate of normal annual lumber requirements 

 for the country in its present stage of general development. The 

 total arrived at is 31 to 34 billion feet. By normal requirements are 

 to be understood the volume of consumption that may logically be 

 expected when general economic conditions are such that the country 

 is conscious neither of depression nor of unusual prosperity. It thus 

 needs no proof that normal consumption will not be attained under the 

 stress of the existing general depression, or the agricultural depression 

 of earlier origin, which held rural construction below normal while 

 industrial expansion was pushing urban construction far above normal. 



TABLE 5. Estimated normal lumber consumption as of 1930 in comparison with 



totals for 1912 and 1928 



For the sake of the argument, however, let the normal present 

 lumber requirements estimated in the table be assumed as a base line. 

 The translation of these figures into normal long-time trends will 



