A NATIONAL PLAN FOR AMERICAN FORESTRY 257 



depend very much on such influences as population, national wealth, 

 and economic organization. Stabilization of population, changes in 

 design and construction practices, the use of new materials, multi- 

 family housing, and changes to extensive farming in some regions and 

 to intensive in others will have a direct effect on normal lumber 

 consumption for residential and farm building construction. Devia- 

 tions from normal in one line of consumption may have much or 

 little effect in another. Separate consideration of each major line of 

 consumption is necessary, both as to direction of trend and percentage 

 of total volume. 



With a return of normal agricultural conditions there is a prospec- 

 tive increase of some 5 billion board feet over the 1928 rural lumber 

 consumption. Is the currently reported city-to-farm movement 

 likely to add appreciably to this potential market recovery? If recov- 

 ery of urban residential construction involves a return to a lower 

 price class, where the all-wood house has predominated, how will 

 that be reflected in lumber consumption? The answer to such ques- 

 tions would shed much-needed light on future lumber requirements. 

 Indications point to a steadily declining birth rate and a national 

 population figure approaching stability between 1950 and 1970. A 

 prospective increase in population of only 10 million persons from 

 1930 to 1940 would require proportionately less living accommoda- 

 tions than the 16-million increase from 1920 to 1930. Against this 

 trend the increasing age of existing construction is to be considered. 

 The number of dwellings has doubled in the 40 years since 1890, so 

 that in the greater proportion of dwellings, the replacement factor 

 has not had time to develop. A 60-year replacement factor, for 

 example, applied to present dwelling accommodations would even- 

 tually set up a requirement, even with a stable population, for some 

 450,000 new family units annually, which was approximately the pre- 

 war rate. 



HARDWOODS VERSUS SOFTWOODS 



The declining consumption of lumber is reflected about equally by 

 hardwoods and softwoods since 1906, as shown in table 1. From 1919 

 to 1928 hardwoods represented some 19 percent of total lumber con- 

 sumed, as against perhaps 23 percent in the period 1909 to 1918. 

 Much the same factors are at work in both hardwood and softwood 

 consumption, although perhaps not to the same degree in specific 

 cases. Changing rural demand would no doubt affect softwoods 

 more than hardwoods, as would also the use of brick veneer, stucco, 

 or other exteriors in place of wood in urban residential construction. 

 On the other hand, the sustained use of wood in furniture manu- 

 facture means more in terms of hardwood than of softwood require- 

 ments. 



There is also a factor of competition between hardwoods and soft- 

 woods. It is known that in the motor vehicle industry softwoods 

 have displaced hardwoods for some purposes. The trend to up- 

 holstered furniture has meant some use of softwoods in place of 

 hardwoods. Competition in wood flooring exists not only between 

 different hardwoods, such as maple and oak, but also between hard- 

 woods and softwoods. 



The foregoing are only a few of the factors which must be seriously 

 studied before future lumber requirements can be predicted with a 

 satisfactory degree of assurance. 



