A NATIONAL PLAN FOR AMERICAN FORESTRY 263 



the attempt to anticipate lumber requirements the factors dealt with 

 have more or less stability, once they are definitely set up. That 

 there should be a dwelling for every family, for example, would prob- 

 ably be generally accepted, and there is little point in considering a 

 prospect of two dwellings per family. Size of family and size of 

 dwelling are changing, but reasons for the changes are evident and the 

 trends can be set up as normal. 



On the other hand, there is as yet no accepted standard for the 

 number and quantity of newspapers per family. In Washington, 

 D.C., the average for the city is 2} daily papers per family, whereas 

 rural sections can no doubt be found where there are no daily papers. 

 Will the saturation point be 1, 2, or more daily papers per family? 

 Further, how large is the daily paper to be? Similar questions may 

 be raised as to books and magazines. There is still a large undevel- 

 oped field for all cultural paper products. Will it remain undeveloped? 



Kequirements for boards and probable new paper products are 

 equally uncertain. There is no allotment per capita or per family 

 that can be recognized as marking the saturation point, nor can 

 anyone say when such a point will be reached. 



Referring again to figure 5, it is seen that consumption of all papers 

 increased at a greater rate after 1920 than before. If the trend after 

 1920 represents a new "normal," its continuation would suggest a 

 total paper consumption of 28 million tons by 1950. On the other 

 hand, the post-war increases may have been abnormal. Decline in 

 consumption since 1929 is looked upon by some as marking a return 

 to a lower basis. What that means is not at all definite, since paper 

 consumption has certainly not suffered as severely in the present de- 



Eression as have manufactures generally. A return to pre-war trends, 

 owever, would indicate a total paper consumption in the United 

 States considerably below 28 million tons by 1950. Bernard Navarre, 

 president of the Association of Paper Manufacturers of France, 

 in a paper presented at the International Forestry Congress in Paris, 

 in 1931, predicted that in 30 years world paper consumption will 

 increase from 20 million tons to 60 million tons. If the United States 

 retains its relative position, this is a forecast of over 30 million tons 

 annual consumption here by 1960. A report by Charles W. Boyce, 

 of the American Paper and Pulp Association, in October 1931, sug- 

 gests a 1950 paper consumption of 24 million tons and equivalent 

 pulpwood requirements of 22 million cords. 



For conversion of total paper consumption to the equivalent of 

 pulpwood, the rough relation of 1 cord of wood to a ton of pulp 

 may be assumed. This ratio is subject to some variation depending, 

 for example, upon the proportion of waste paper reused and the pro- 

 portion of such reuse to total consumption. With boards holding 

 closely to the general trend since 1 9 1 8, no great change in the conversion 

 factor is in sight. Timber requirements for pulpwood must also take 

 into account the use of waste wood, which is small thus far, represent- 

 ing only some 1% percent of wood converted into pulp in the United 

 States and some 3^ percent of our total pulpwood requirements. 



RAYON AND CELLOPHANE 



Besides pulp requirements for paper manufacture, there is a rela- 

 tively small but rapidly growing pulp requirement for other cellulose 



168342 33 vol. 1 18 



