276 A NATIONAL PLAN FOE AMERICAN FORESTRY 



sumption under the conditions existing since 1929, which must be the 

 basis on which requirements are set up. This study is intended to 

 furnish needed data rather than to give exact forecasts for the future. 



LUMBER 



Total lumber consumption declined from a maximum of approxi- 

 mately 45 billion board feet in 1906 to about 34 billion in 1929. The 

 virtual halt in agricultural expansion since 1910 has practically elim- 

 inated a market for 4>2 billion board feet of lumber annually for con- 

 struction on new farms. Agricultural depression since 1921 has cur- 

 tailed farm repairs and replacements to the extent of approximately 

 5K billion board feet annually. This latter item of consumption may 

 be restored when the agricultural depression lifts, giving a normal rural 

 lumber consumption of from 10 billion to 1 1 billion board feet annually. 



A large-scale change from single-family dwellings to multifamily 

 housing and the intrusion of other materials in urban residential 

 construction have caused lumber consumption in that category to lag 

 far behind the great increase in urban building, but kept it well ahead 

 of rural consumption. Between 1912 and 1928 there was a relative 

 drop of 25 percent in lumber used in urban residential construction. 

 Urban construction other than residential doubled between 1912 and 

 1928, but lumber consumption for this purpose remained stationary. 

 Thus 50 percent of a former lumber use has been replaced by other 

 materials. 



There is nothing to indicate measurable expansion in the consump- 

 tion of lumber for factory use or for railroad car construction. On 

 the whole, a decline seems more likely. Lumber used in furniture 

 increased 25 percent between 1912 and 1928 and appears to be holding 

 its own. 



After considering all factors, an estimated figure of normal lumber 

 requirements for the Nation as at present lies between 31 and 34 

 billion board feet. "Normal" requirements are taken to be the 

 volume of consumption that might logically be expected when general 

 economic conditions are such that the Nation is conscious neither of 

 depression nor of unusual prosperity. 



Future lumber requirements depend on such factors as the restora- 

 tion of agricultural prosperity, the effect of the current urban-to-farm 

 movement on rural construction, success in meeting competition of 

 other materials, the extent to which the all-wood house holds its place 

 in urban construction, the rate of population increase (now estimated 

 to cease between 1950 and 1970), and the effect of obsolescence on 

 replacement. 



PULPWOOD, PULP, AND PAPER 



Paper requirements increased steadily for more than 100 years, 

 until 1929. Whether the decline since then marks a change in the 

 general trend cannot be determined as yet. It is reasonable to expect 

 a saturation point in newsprint, especially in view of a declining rate 

 of population increase, but the consumption of wood for other pulp 

 products appears to have plenty of room to expand, particularly in the 

 fields of fiber-board boxes and insulating materials, and for rayon and 

 other cellulose products. Wood is the favored material for pulp and 

 paper and should be able to hold its place against other raw materials. 



