1356 A NATIONAL PLAN FOB AMERICAN FORESTRY 



of wood. But the projection of an unlimited and uncontested use of 

 wood into the future is a matter of uncertainty that must be frankly 

 faced. 



The declining trend in lumber markets since 1906 is amplv pre- 

 sented elsewhere in the chapter of this report entitled " Timber 

 Resources and Requirements." We cannot overlook the facts that 

 had the per capita lumber consumption from 1899 to 1909 continued, 

 the 1929 gross consumption would have been almost twice what it 

 was, and that in an era of prosperity and building activity perhaps 

 never reached before (1920-29), when the consumption of all other 

 major building materials was greatly increased, gross lumber con- 

 sumption actually decreased or barely held its own. 



A review of present facts and tendencies of the market situation 

 leads to the inevitable conclusion that without positive and deter- 

 mined action to enlarge them, our requirements for forest products 

 in the future may not be what they have been in the past, either in 

 form or in quantity; that a high per capita consumption of forest 

 products in the past is no guarantee of high consumption in the 

 future; and that new forms and economies in the use of the basic raw 

 materials, such as are represented by developments during recent 

 years in steel-skeleton construction, veneered coverage, and large-size 

 structural units of light weight, may upset the most exact predictions 

 based on past experience. We must recognize that uses long held by 

 wood are being contested both by old materials refined by science and 

 by new materials of scientific origin, promoted with the aid of exten- 

 sive technical knowledge of their properties. Metal lath and window 

 sash, synthetic boards, all-metal automobile bodies and airplanes, 

 steel desks, metal doors and trim, composition floors, concrete bridges 

 and piling, asbestos and tile roofing, metal poles and posts, synthetic 

 wood alcohol these are but a few illustrations of the prevailing 

 tendency toward substitution. The real and constant quest of 

 modern Americans for technical progress and improved products 

 and service are factors that must be candidly faced in planning for 

 the future. If in the case of any material, wood included, it is 

 assumed that it will stand for all time on the strength of its past and 

 present state of perfection, there is almost a certainty, because of the 

 increasing interchangeability of materials, that its use will diminish.. 

 There is an essential distinction to be drawn here between the need for 

 wood as a cheap raw material for conversion by industry into salable 

 commodities in a highly competitive field, and wood or forests 

 essential in themselves for other purposes. 



THE IMPORTANCE OF MAINTAINING AND INCREASING 



CONSUMPTION 



In future plans for forestry, persistent effort must be put forth 

 to retain, to recapture, and to expand the market for forest products, 

 which means the use of modern competitive methods that have come 

 into play in the development of other materials; nor is the motive 

 solely one of profits to particular forest-using industries. 



Forest markets are an essential factor of land use. With action 

 which will bring assurance of future markets large enough, diversified 

 enough, and profitable enough, we can look forward to the permanent 

 and profitable use of millions of acres of land for commodity forest 



