82 



Game Survey of the North Central States 



TABLE 16. Risk of wet nesting seasons (June-July-August rainfall) 



In general, rainfall over 15 inches may be expected at St. Louis a little less 

 than 1 out of every 10 years, and a deluge in 1 out of every 20 years, but in 

 Springfield rainfall over 15 inches may be expected almost every other year, and 

 a deluge once in 10 years. 



It should be pointed out that the Springfield records are less than half as 

 long as the St. Louis records, hence their general characteristics are less con- 

 clusive. 



Frequency of Losses. The losses from all causes as indicated by short 

 crops on Chart 2, when added up and compared with the total period during 

 which they occurred, give a rough idea of the average frequency with which short 

 crops may be expected in the future. 



TABLE 17. Frequency of losses (all causes) 



State 



Wisconsin 

 Illinois 

 Indiana 

 Ohio 

 Missouri 



It is improbable that the number of losses recorded on Chart 2 is anywhere 

 near the actual number. This fact alone would indicate that the frequency in- 

 dicated by the table (once every 4-7 years) is too low. On the other hand, it is 

 certain, in view of the usually spotty nature of extreme weather, that many of 

 the losses on Chart 2 were by no means Statewide. This fact alone would indicate 

 that the-frequency of 74 years is too high. Possibly the two errors balance, so 

 that in any single locality a partial quail crop failure every five years is about 

 what can be expected. 



Since recovery ordinarily occurs the second year, this is sufficient to answer 

 the question: does the risk of loss impose a prohibitive risk on the desired 

 ventures in quail management? The answer is that it does not, that not more than 



