EDWARD BUNNELL PHELPS, M. A., F. S. S. 



175 



decrease in infant mortality is therefore considerably smaller 

 than the figures would seem to indicate if taken at their face 

 value. 



For instance, that excellent authority of almost life-long 

 experience with vital statistics, Dr. William H. 'Guilfoy, Regis- 

 trar of Records of the Department of Health of the City of 

 New York, tells me that although from 92 to 95 per cent, of 



CHART III. Annual ratios of deaths under 1 year to (A) total deaths and 

 (B) to living births in Massachusetts in 10 years, 1900-9. 



the actual births in the City of New York were probably regis- 

 tered in 1909, some authorities estimate that not more than 

 65 per cent, of the births in the same city were registered as 

 late as 1900. Dr. Guilfoy believes that the percentage of regis- 

 tered births in 1900 was something like 80 per cent., but, even 

 on that basis, there would have been a net increase of at least 

 15 per cent, in the registered births of the city of New York 



