720 



Yearbook of Agriculture 1949 



tices for 20 years would mean a de- 

 cline of 117 billion board feet, or one- 

 third of the already inadequate saw- 

 timber growing stock. Obviously such 

 a decline in timber volume would 

 mean curtailment of the forest indus- 

 tries and drastic readjustment in de- 

 pendent communities. 



The greatest reduction of saw tim- 

 ber is taking place in the Douglas-fir 

 region, where 20 years more at the 

 1944 rate of decline would bring the 

 volume down 206 billion board feet 

 41 percent. Because the backlog of 

 virgin timber is so large, this and lesser 

 losses in other parts of the West would 

 not reduce the growing stock there 

 dangerously. But it would be accom- 

 panied by the closing of many estab- 

 lished mills and the continued shift of 

 industrial activity from one locality to 

 another. Even with good forest prac- 

 tices and farsighted planning for both 

 public and private lands, waning of 

 the virgin timber may be accompanied 

 by a substantial reduction of output. 

 Certainly depletion of the Douglas-fir, 

 ponderosa pine, western white pine, 

 sugar pine, and redwood would force 

 western forest industries to adapt 

 themselves to the production and mar- 

 keting of different classes of products 

 than at present. 



Because continued timber depletion 

 is so crucial, a balance between growth 

 and drain is often represented as the 

 solution of the problem. But balance 

 in itself is not an adequate goal. As 

 a matter of fact, we have a near bal- 

 ance now between cubic-foot growth 

 and drain of all timber in trees 5 inches 

 or more in diameter. 



If the balance between cubic-foot 

 growth and drain for all timber were 

 an adequate criterion, we would have 

 to conclude that the forest situation 

 in the North is satisfactory today 

 because cubic-foot growth is well in 

 excess of drain there. Yet forest deple- 

 tion and deterioration are more acute 

 in the North than in other sections, 

 and the timber industries there are, 

 in general, at a low ebb. Many of the 

 older wood-using plants have been 



forced out of business, and the short- 

 age of good timber makes it difficult 

 for new plants to start. Shrinkage of 

 the timber industries has caused drain 

 to fall far below the productive ca- 

 pacity of the land. And the excess of 

 all-timber growth over drain is a re- 

 flection of the inferior quality and 

 small size of a large part of the timber. 

 In fact, one of the major forest prob- 

 lems of the North is to find markets 

 for the small, low-grade timber, which 

 should be got out of the way to make 

 room for more valuable growth. 



The near balance between all-tim- 

 ber growth and drain is deceiving in 

 other ways also. The over-all figures 

 mask the fact that, for softwoods, the 

 drain is 2 1 percent more than growth, 

 while for hardwoods it is 17 percent 

 less. Furthermore, four-fifths of the 

 drain is in saw timber, whereas much 

 of the growth is in small, low-grade 

 trees and inferior hardwoods. The Na- 

 tion should not be satisfied with a 

 balance based on poles and saplings 

 when its forest industries depend so 

 largely on saw timber. Even the pulp 

 and paper industry, which can use 

 trees of less than saw-timber size, ob- 

 tains about three-fourths of its wood 

 from saw-timber trees. 



There is no basis for assuming that 

 the gap between saw-timber growth 

 and drain is being reduced. In fact, 

 despite the increase of 3.3 billion board 

 feet in estimate of saw-timber growth 

 between 1936 and 1944, the disparity 

 between saw-timber growth and drain 

 was about 3 billion board feet greater 

 in 1944 than in 1936 and is even 

 greater today. 



In any event, the needs of this coun- 

 try for timber products is considerably 

 greater than the present cut. A careful 

 study of long-range potentialities indi- 

 cates that 65 to 72 billion board feet 

 would be a reasonable goal of annual 

 saw-timber growth. To double saw- 

 timber growth, as this suggests, is a big 

 order. But to aim for less would not be 

 sound public policy or consistent with 

 the responsibilities and needs of the 

 Nation. 



