FUTURE REQUIREMENTS FOR TIMBER 



A. C. CLINE 



When we estimate our future needs 

 for timber, we have to be concerned 

 with many products besides lumber 

 fiberboards, plastics, modified woods, 

 alcohol, fodder yeast, and others of the 

 exciting array that modern chemistry 

 has given us. We must plan on meeting 

 requirements for all kinds of pulp and 

 paper products, the liquid fuels, wood 

 sugars, and plywood. Perhaps, also, 

 atomic energy will make obsolete all 

 our ideas about heating and power. 

 Even though great changes like these 

 lie ahead, we cannot discard the ex- 

 perience that people have accumulated 

 these thousands of years. The wisest 

 policy is to plan on a growing popula- 

 tion and a rising standard of living and 

 dependence on the forest. 



In this article, the country's future 

 requirements for timber are termed 

 "potential timber requirements" the 

 quantity of timber products that might 

 be used by consumers who are afforded 

 reasonable latitude in choice of readily 

 available materials, including timber 

 products, in a national economy func- 

 tioning at a high level of employment 

 and output. The definition differs from 

 definitions of future consumption or of 

 future demand based on whatever eco- 

 nomic conditions happen to be at any 

 given future time. Of course, the as- 

 sumed condition of ready availability 

 may not come to pass. It is plain that, 

 unless the present trend toward forest 

 depletion is reversed, the timber short- 

 age will become more and more acute, 

 prices will go still higher, and effective 

 demand for timber will decline. 



Emphasis is placed on requirements 

 for trees of saw-timber size, because 

 nearly 80 percent of all timber prod- 

 ucts are cut from such trees. Small 

 trees from unmanaged forests might 

 supply our future requirements for 

 such products as pulpwood, fuel wood, 

 fence posts, and small poles, which can 

 be got from poorer and smaller trees, 



but not requirements for lumber, ply- 

 wood, and other high-grade products. 



In 1944 the commercial cutting of 

 timber resulted in the removal of 49.7 

 billion board feet of saw timber; losses 

 of 4.2 billion from fire, disease, insects, 

 and so on brought the total saw-timber 

 drain to 53.9 billion board feet. At the 

 same time, annual saw-timber growth 

 was 35.3 billion board feet. Thus, the 

 excess of saw-timber drain over growth 

 is slightly more than 50 percent. 



The separate items making up the 

 saw-timber drain in 1944 (in billion 

 board feet) were: 



Lumber 34. 4 



Pulpwood 4. 8 



Fuel wood 3.9 



Veneer logs and bolts 2. 



Railroad ties hewed. 



1.6 



Cooperage stock . 7 



Mine timbers . 3 



Shingles . 3 



Other 1. 7 



Losses due to fire, diseases, insects, 



etc 4. 2 



Total 53. 9 



Timber products whose end use is 

 the primary form, that is, those that 

 require no processing in a sawmill or 

 other type of manufacturing plant, 

 will be taken up first. They are also 

 called the nonmanufactured products, 

 because they are produced in the for- 

 est principally with the use of only 

 hand tools. They include fuel wood, 

 poles, piling, posts, mine timbers, and 

 railroad ties. The major products in 

 this group account for 19.8 percent of 

 the all-timber drain, but only 8.8 per- 

 cent of the saw-timber drain. The pro- 

 portions are somewhat smaller than 

 actual, because there are a few other 

 products whose end use is in the pri- 

 mary form; for example, wood poles 

 used in shade-grown tobacco, rough 

 wood used for dunnage in storing ship 

 cargo, and round and split material 

 used in rustic construction. 



