Future Requirements for Timber 



struction, including maintenance and 

 repair, represents about 20 percent. 



The postwar housing shortage grew 

 from failure during the depression 



735 



need of housing continued to live with 

 other families, in trailers, or in make- 

 shift accommodations. 



It has been estimated that the 



years to keep pace with the growing 1,250,000 housing units annually re- 



nnmi lotion anH tr rf l ctrir > tirr<c r\m oil ^-.,^~^J . ^..U j._i _ t ^ ^ i ** 



population and to restrictions on all 

 kinds of civilian construction during 

 the war. In 1946, the President created 

 the Office of the Housing Expediter, 

 which set goals of 1,250,000 housing 

 units to be started in 1946 and 1,500,- 

 000 in 1947. According to the National 

 Housing Agency, a rate of 1,250,000 

 new dwelling units a year needs to be 

 maintained for at least 10 years. Such 

 a rate has not yet been attained. It 

 was estimated that somewhat fewer 

 than a million units were started in 

 1948. 



The Joint Committee on Housing 

 of the 80th Congress recommended 

 housing legislation to provide addi- 

 tional aids to housing "which are 

 needed to reach and maintain housing 

 production at a rate of 1,250,000 to 

 1,500,000 dwellings per year . . ." It 

 also found that "a very substantial 

 proportion of our existing supply of 

 housing falls far below minimum 

 standards of decency." The Commit- 

 tee concluded, "We should have a con- 

 struction program that will produce 

 at least 15,500,000 nonfarm housing 

 units between now and the end of 

 1960. This would call for the average 

 annual construction of not less than 

 1,285,000 nonfarm units." 



The National Conference on Family 

 Life also reported in May 1948: "The 

 supply [of lumber] does not appear to 

 be sufficient, however, to permit any 

 increase in house building at the price 

 levels at which any increase should 

 occur. The upward sweep of lumber 

 prices to new record levels month after 

 month has been strong evidence of the 

 affects of a heavy pressure of demand 

 against a supply that is even now not 

 entirely adequate." 



Here is an illustration of the dis- 

 tinction between potential require- 

 ments and effective demand. Lumber 

 had priced itself out of the low-income 

 market, and thousands of families in 



quired would take nearly 11 billion 

 board feet of lumber, as follows: 



Type of unit Number 



One- and two-family 

 conventional 400, 000 



One-family cottage 

 type 200, 000 



Multiple-family con- 

 ventional 400, 000 



Prefabricated 250, 000 



Lumber 

 content 

 (million 

 bd.ft.) 



5,120 

 2,000 



2,560 

 1,250 



10, 930 

 allow- 



Total 1,250,000 



The estimate makes some 

 ance for the increasing substitution of 

 plywood, building boards, concrete, 

 brick, and metals for lumber, a trend 

 that appears likely to continue. 



Housing requirements 50 years 

 hence will depend largely on the popu- 

 lation increase between now and then. 

 A conservative estimate of 167 million 

 persons has been used, or about 43 

 million families. With the necessary 

 allowance for about 5 percent vacancy, 

 and for a 40-year replacement basis, 

 the number of housing units required 

 annually would be about 1.1 million. 

 Assuming 8,000 board feet as the aver- 

 age quantity of lumber per unit 50 

 years hence, the total potential re- 

 quirement would be about 9 billion 

 board feet. 



FARM CONSTRUCTION, including 

 maintenance and repair, also failed to 

 keep pace with needs during the long 

 period of depressed farm income in 

 the 1930 s s and the years when military 

 requirements had first call on lumber 

 supply. The Secretary of Agriculture 

 in a statement to the 79th Congress 

 reported that about two-thirds of 

 the Nation's farm families are not 

 adequately housed and that one-third 

 are living in houses in such poor con- 

 dition that they are virtually beyond 

 repair. 



