Future Requirements for Timber 



737 



struction and repair has been reduced 

 by nearly one-half. Metal has displaced 

 wood as a freight-car material. Poten- 

 tial requirements in the 1950-55 pe- 

 riod, even with heavy traffic, are placed 

 at 600 million board feet. 



In the case of general railroad main- 

 tenance, the trend is also away from 

 wooden structures and toward steel 

 and concrete. Potential requirements 

 for such uses in 1950-55 are estimated 

 at 425 million board feet annually. 



In summary, potential annual re- 

 quirements for lumber by the railroads 

 in millions of board feet in 1950-55 



are: 



Gross ties (sawed only) . 



Bridge and switch ties 



Freight-car lumber 1 



All other maintenance 



1,050 



200 



_ 600 



425 



Total 2, 275 



In addition to the round and hewed 

 material, the mines also have require- 

 ments for lumber. Annual needs for 

 sawed mine timber, of all kinds, in the 

 period 1950-55 are estimated at 500 

 million board feet. 



ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION in- 



cludes such classes as commercial 

 buildings, manufacturing and power 

 plants, schools, hospitals, telephone 

 and telegraph facilities, marine con- 

 struction, highways, airports, water 

 supply and sanitation, and construc- 

 tion distinctly military in character. 

 Public works are an important seg- 

 ment of this group; it has been 

 estimated that a backlog of 75 billion 

 dollars of needed public works exists. It 

 includes more than 40 billion dollars 

 for highways and 10 billion dollars for 

 schools. 



Lumber consumption for these con- 

 struction uses is determined by apply- 

 ing board-feet-per-dollar conversion 

 factors to the dollar-volume of esti- 

 mates made currently by Government 

 agencies. By determining the past re- 

 lationship between dollar volume of 

 construction and gross national prod- 

 uct (the total value of currently pro- 

 duced goods and services flowing to all 



802062 49 48 



consumers, to Government, and for 

 purposes of gross capital formation) 

 and estimating what the gross national 

 product will be in the future under 

 conditions of full employment, a basis 

 is obtained for estimating potential 

 requirements for lumber. 



Of course, certain allowances have 

 to be made. The changes that will 

 take place in the board-feet-per-dollar 

 conversion factors cannot be accu- 

 rately predicted. It is to be expected 

 that the proportion of lumber may con- 

 tinue to decrease somewhat in relation 

 to that of steel, concrete, and other 

 more durable and fireproof materials 

 especially preferred in heavy construc- 

 tion. 



The annual dollar volume (on a 

 1946 price basis) of construction in 

 1950-55 is estimated as 4.86 billion dol- 

 lars for all private construction (com- 

 mercial, industrial, and so on) ; 2.83 

 billion dollars for all private utilities 

 construction; 2.5 billion dollars for all 

 public construction (educational, in- 

 stitutional, and so on) ; and 5.33 bil- 

 lion dollars for all other public works 

 (military, highways, airports, conser- 

 vation, and so on) . The indicated po- 

 tential lumber requirements for all 

 these is 8,508 million board feet. 



ALL OTHER MAINTENANCE AND RE- 

 PAIR includes lumber requirements for 

 maintaining and repairing all types of 

 structures except farm buildings and 

 those connected with the railroads and 

 mines. As in the case of new construc- 

 tion, the increased use of plywood, 

 composition wallboard, and other sub- 

 stitutes for lumber must be taken into 

 account, as well as the lesser amount 

 of upkeep and repair required where 

 durable materials like steel and con- 

 crete are used in construction. Taking 

 these various factors into considera- 

 tion, potential annual requirements 

 for all other maintenance and repair 

 in 1950-55 are estimated at 2.7 billion 

 board feet. 



Requirements 50 years hence for all 

 other new construction and mainte- 

 nance and repair (all except nonfarm 



