THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 29 



is owned privately, in Austria 61 per cent, in France 65 

 per cent, in Norway 70 per cent. While it is true that the 

 European private owner has better tax and fire conditions, it 

 must also be remembered that the value of the land on which 

 he makes the growing crop yield a good dividend is about 

 ten times as high as it now is in the United States. 



The prospective grower of new timber in the American 

 West can expect equal profit here at some time. His chief 

 concern is whether its foreshadowing influences are suffi- 

 ciently strong at present. To determine this he must consider 

 the probable attitude of the public and of the lumbermen 

 themselves. 



WHAT IT MEANS TO THE CONSUMER 



To the consumer the principles previously outlined mean 

 that the price of lumber will rise somewhat. Indeed, he must 

 expect that, regardless of the production factor, for the tim- 

 ber owner cannot pay taxes, prevent fire, and keep his money 

 tied up, all for a considerable period, and still sell the ma- 

 terial as cheap as he could before these expenses accrued. It 

 also means that if the consumer fails to recognize and con- 

 cede these principles it will be at his own sacrifice. Too low 

 prices now merely mean too high prices in the early future, 

 for they will not permit protection, economy or reforestation. 

 He must eventually, and not far hence, pay the total cost 

 of production. It is urgently to his interest not to add to 

 this by preventing production and thus permitting the owner 

 of the timber already produced to speculate on the approach- 

 ing shortage. 



The danger of this can be illustrated by a comparison.. Sup- 

 pose three-quarters of the apple growers of the country, either 

 through ignorance of the principles of their industry or 

 through shortage of money with which to pay their debts, 

 should be forced for a considerable period to accept a price 

 for their crop so low that after paying current bills they were 

 obliged to neglect their orchards absolutely, without plow- 



