EVIDENCE OF UNIVERSAL CAUSATION. 99 



Were we to suppose (what it is perfectly possible to imagine) 

 that the present order of the universe were brought to an end, 

 and that a chaos succeeded in which there was no fixed succes- 

 sion of events, and the past gave no assurance of the future ; 

 if a human being were miraculously kept alive to witness this 

 change, he surely would soon cease to believe in any uni- 

 formity, the uniformity itself no longer existing. If this be 

 admitted, the belief in uniformity either is not an instinct, or 

 it is an instinct conquerable, like all other instincts, by 

 acquired knowledge. 



But there is no need to speculate on what might be, when 

 we have positive and certain knowledge of what has been. It 

 is not true as a matter of fact, that mankind have always 

 believed that all the successions of events were uniform and 

 according to fixed laws. The Greek philosophers, not even 

 excepting Aristotle, recognised Chance and Spontaneity 

 (rv\r] and TO airo//arov) as among the agents in nature ; in 

 other words, they believed that to that extent there was no 

 guarantee that the past had been similar to itself, or that the 

 future would resemble the past. Even now a full half of the 

 philosophical world, including the very same metaphysicians 

 who contend most for the instinctive character of the belief 

 in uniformity, consider one important class of phenomena, 

 volitions, to be an exception to the uniformity, and not 

 governed by a fixed law.* 



* I am happy to be able to quote the following excellent passage from Mr. 

 Baden Powell's Essay on the Inductive Philosophy, in confirmation, both in 

 regard to history and to doctrine, of the statement made in the text. Speaking 

 of the "conviction of the universal and permanent uniformity of nature," Mr. 

 Powell says (pp. 98100), 



"We may remark that this idea, in its proper extent, is by no means one 

 of popular acceptance or natural growth. Just so far as the daily experience 

 of every one goes, so far indeed he comes to embrace a certain persuasion of 

 this kind, but merely to this limited extent, that what is going on around him 

 at present, in his own narrow sphere of observation, will go on in like manner 

 in future. The peasant believes that the sun which rose to-day will rise again 

 to-morrow ; that the seed put into the ground will be followed in due time by 

 the harvest this year as it was last year, and the like ; but has no notion of 

 such inferences in subjects beyond his immediate observation. And it should 

 be observed that each class of persons, in admitting this belief within the 



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