GROUNDS OF DISBELIEF. 179 



really only one set of possible causes of mendacity correspond- 

 ing to the whole. The announcement " sixes not drawn ten 

 times," represents, and is known by the witness to represent, a 

 great multitude of contingencies, every one of which being 

 unlike every other, there may be a different and a fresh set of 

 causes of mendacity corresponding to each. 



It appears to me, therefore, that Laplace's doctrine is not 

 strictly true of any coincidences, and is wholly inapplicable to 

 most : and that to know whether a coincidence does or does 

 not require more evidence to render it credible than an ordinary 

 event, we must refer, in every instance, to first principles, and 

 estimate afresh what is the probability that the given testi- 

 mony would have been delivered in that instance, supposing 

 the fact which it asserts not to be true. 



With these remarks we close the discussion of the Grounds 

 of Disbelief; and along with it, such exposition as space 

 admits, and as the writer has it in his power to furnish, of the 

 Logic of Induction. 



122 



