SCIENCE OF HISTORY. 539 



under favourable circumstances can do for mankind, as well 

 as of what a government can do for a nation, many different 

 opinions are possible ; and every shade of opinion on these 

 points is consistent with the fullest recognition that there are 

 invariable laws of historical phenomena. Of course the degree 

 of influence which has to be assigned to these more special 

 agencies, makes a great difference in the precision which can 

 be given to the general laws, and in the confidence with which 

 predictions can be grounded on them. Whatever depends on 

 the peculiarities of individuals, combined with the accident of 

 the positions they hold, is necessarily incapable of being fore- 

 seen. Undoubtedly these casual combinations might be elimi- 

 nated like any others, by taking a sufficiently large cycle: 

 the peculiarities of a great historical character make their in- 

 fluence felt in history sometimes for several thousand years, 

 but it is highly probable that they may make no difference at all 

 at the end of fifty millions. Since, however, we cannot obtain 

 an average of the vast length of time necessary to exhaust all 

 the possible combinations of great men and circumstances, as 

 much of the law of evolution of human affairs as depends upon 

 this average, is and remains inaccessible to us : and within the 

 next thousand years, which are of considerably more impor- 

 tance to us than the whole remainder of the fifty millions, the 

 favourable and unfavourable combinations which will occur 

 will be to us purely accidental. We cannot foresee the advent 

 of great men. Those who introduce new speculative thoughts 

 or great practical conceptions into the world, cannot have 

 their epoch fixed beforehand. What science can do, is this. 

 It can trace through past history the general causes which 

 had brought mankind into that preliminary state, which when 

 the right sort of great man appeared, rendered them accessible 

 to his influence. If this state continues, experience renders 

 it tolerably certain that in a longer or shorter period the great 

 man will be produced; provided that the general circum- 

 stances of the country and people are (which very often they 

 are not) compatible with his existence ; of which point also, 

 science can in some measure judge. It is in this manner that 

 the results of progress, except as to the celerity of their pro- 



