542 LOGIC OF THE MORAL SCIENCES. 



particular crisis, has affected the whole subsequent fate of the 

 world. It is as certain as any contingent judgment respecting 

 historical events can he, that if there had been no Themistocles 

 there would have been no victory of Salamis ; and had there 

 not, where would have been all our civilization ? How different 

 again would have been the issue if Epaminondas, or Timoleon, 

 or even Iphicrates, instead of Chares and Lysicles, had com- 

 manded at Chseroneia. As is well said in the second of two 

 Essays on the Study of History,* in my judgment the soundest 

 and most philosophical productions which the recent contro- 

 versies on this subject have called forth; historical science au- 

 thorizes not absolute, but only conditional predictions. General 

 causes count for much, but individuals also "produce great 

 changes in history, and colour its whole complexion long after 

 their death. . . . No one can doubt that the Koman republic 

 would have subsided into a military despotism if Julius Caesar 

 had never lived ;" (thus much was rendered practically certain 

 by general causes) : " but is it at all clear that in that case 

 Gaul would ever have formed a province of the empire ? Might 

 not Varus have lost his three legions on the banks of the 

 Ehone? and might not that river have become the frontier 

 instead of the Khine? This might well have happened if 

 Csesar and Crassus had changed provinces ; and it is surely 

 impossible to say that in such an event the venue (as lawyers 

 say) of European civilization might not have been changed. 

 The Norman Conquest in the same way was as much the act 

 of a single man, as the writing of a newspaper article ; and 

 knowing as we do the history of that man and his family, we 

 can retrospectively predict with all but infallible certainty, that 

 no other person " (no other in that age, I presume, is meant), 

 " could have accomplished the enterprise. If it had not been 

 accomplished, is there any ground to suppose that either 

 our history or our national character would have been what 

 they are ?" 



As is most truly remarked by the same writer, the whole 

 stream of Grecian history, as cleared up by Mr. Grote, is one 



* In the Cornhill Magazine for June and July 1861. 



