THAT HAYSTACK. 215 



Find a Needle in thai Haystack. 



When dealing with a number so vast as we have here 

 obtained expressing the certainty of our final conclusion, it 

 is extremely difficult to convey any sort of an adequate idea 

 of the real force of the argument because the number itself 

 lies beyond the conception of the human mind. 



We shall, therefore, interrupt our argument for one 

 moment longer, in order to develop this illustration of 

 "finding a needle in a haystack" in the manner already 

 indicated. 



Indeed, this conception of the practical impossibility of 

 finding a single needle lost in hay stacked up, is the most 

 common and striking mental picture in our language 

 expressive of a chance that is practically zero. 



Let us consider an ordinary rectangular haystack having 

 a base a rod square. Then an acre will hold 160 such stacks, 

 and since a square mile is 640 acres, it will hold 102 400 such 

 stacks. Let us say 100 ooo stacks to the square mile. 



The United States (including Alaska) are 3.6 million 

 square miles, and would, therefore, hold 360 ooo millions of 

 such haystacks. 



To find a needle in the haystack covering the entire 

 surface of the United States and Alaska, would, therefore, 

 be to the finding of a needle in a common haystack of a 

 square rod base as 



i to 360000 oooooo. 



We see that this number is a mere handful when com- 

 pared to our own number above given. 



If we extend the haystack to cover all America, both 

 North and South, its base will be 16.3 million square miles, 

 sufficient to hold 



i 630000 oooooo 



such haystacks of one rod square. 



Also this number is insignificant when compared to the 

 one expressing the possibility of the " selection " insinuated 

 against us by a "high chemical authority" who likes to rush 

 into editorial print to show his utter ignorance of what he 

 is talking about and " denouncing.*' 



