288 FIND ONE NEEDLE IN 



II. THAT STELLAR HAYSTACK. 



Since we have shown (p. 213) that for the 12 elements the 

 certainty was I followed by four times the million group of 

 six cyphers, it follows that 



the certainty of 38 elements is 800 followed by nine 

 times the million group of six ciphers 

 times as great 



as for the 12 elements referred to. 



Since the solitary needle in the haystack covering a globe 

 a thousand times the radius of our earth, was found to 

 represent the one chance that we are wrong in our conclu- 

 sion, based upon the determinations of twelve elements, we 

 must try to find the base of the haystack corresponding to 

 the chance of error for the 38 elements here considered. 



Since the square root of 800 is a little over 28, it follows 

 that the square root of the last number given Is 



28 ooo followed by four times the million group of six 

 ciphers. 



Accordingly, the radius of the globe having the neces- 

 sary surface to hold the haystack for the 38 elements is this 

 number of times the thousand radii of the earth which 

 formed the base for the haystack for the dozen elements; 

 p. 217. 



In other words, the radius of the globe having the neces- 

 sary surface to hold our 38 element haystack is 



28 followed by five times the million group of six ciphers 



times the radius of our earth. 



The sun's distance from the earth is 23 150 times the 

 radius of the earth. 



Dividing this into the above, we get (enlarging the 

 divisor to 28 ooo for convenience of division, and to 

 strengthen our result) : 



The globe having a surface equal to the haystack for 

 38 elements must have a radius over 1000 followed 

 by four times the million group of six ciphers times 

 the earth's distance from the sun. 



Since the distance from the sun to Neptune, the most 

 distant planet known, is only 30 times as great as the dis- 



