CHAP. XVIII. 



VACCINATION A DELUSION. 



247 



in tlie first quarter of the century is a clear continuation 

 of a decline which had been going on during the preced- 

 ing forty years, and whatever causes produced that 

 earlier decline may very well have produced the con- 

 tinuation of it. Again, in the first quarter of the cen- 

 tury, vaccination was comparatively small in amount and 

 imperfectly performed. Since 1854 it has been com- 

 pulsory and almost universal; yet from 1854 to 1884 

 there is almost no decline of small-pox perceptible, and 

 the severest epidemic of the century occurred in the 

 midst of that period. Yet again, the one clearly marked 

 decline of small-pox has been in the ten years from 1886 

 to 1896, and it is precisely in this period that there has 

 been a great falling off in vaccination in London, from 

 only 7 per cent, less than the births in 1885 to 20.6 per 

 cent, less in 1894, the last year given in the Keports of 

 the Local Government board; and the decrease of vacci- 

 nations has continued since. 



But even more important, as showing that vaccination 

 has had nothing whatever to do with the decrease of 

 small-pox, is the very close general parallelism of the line 

 showing the other zymotic diseases, the diminution of 

 which it is admitted has been caused by improved 

 hygienic conditions. The decline of this group 'of dis- 

 eases in the first quarter of this century, though some- 

 what less regular, is quite as well marked as in the case 

 of small-pox, as is also its decline in the last forty years 

 of the eighteenth century, strongly suggesting that both 

 declines are due to common causes. Let anyone ex- 

 amine this diagram carefully and say if it is credible that 

 from 1760 to 1800 both declines are due to some im- 

 proved conditions of hygiene and sanitation, but that 



