118 HUMAN FACTORS IN COTTON CULTURE 



is complete." 8 Add to this cycle the complex, unpre- 

 dictable factors of weather and weevil and one under- 

 stands why the cotton farmer is said to hold a ticket in 

 the world's chief lottery. 



Bradford B. Smith writing in the Journal of the 

 American Statistical Society states the economic theory 

 involved : 



The producers of agricultural commodities will, when taken 

 in the mass, plant that product which they believe will yield 

 them the largest net returns or profits. One of the chief fac- 

 tors influencing the net returns is the selling price of the 

 selected crop relative to the possible crops. Thus if the pro- 

 ducer is of the opinion that there will be a relatively high 

 price for his cotton crop, that is relatively higher than corn, 

 for example, he will desire to plant cotton rather than other 

 crops; and the greater the relative price the more [cotton] 

 he would wish to have planted. 17 



Hubbard writing from the viewpoint of the cotton 

 trade comments : 



There is an agitation each year based on the one crop 

 theory, but the trade pay little or no attention to editorials 

 and speeches on the subject, for they know from past experi- 

 ence that it is the price of cotton, the price of supplies, the 

 supply of labor, and other economic facts, which in the end 

 determine the acreage. The southern farmer and merchant 

 know this, also, but they enjoy the annual discussion which 

 they feel develops the facts. 18 



This psychological theory of the cotton producer as 

 "economic man" choosing and rejecting among elements 



16 Industrial Prosperity and the Farmer, p. 57. 



17 "Forecasting the Acreage of Cotton," March, 1925, p. 32. 



18 Op. cit., p. 20. 



