RISKS OF THE COTTON MARKET 



121 



surplus in 1921), to 64 per cent, with the average at 

 33 per cent. 



TABLE IV 



For these eight years an average reduction of 11 per 

 cent in acreage has meant an average of 25.2 per cent 

 reduction in the crops, resulting in an average 33 per 

 cent rise in cotton prices. The effect of the reduction 

 of acreage has, by the time it reaches prices, been greatly 

 accelerated. Thus the original variation of 11 per cent 

 has been tripled in the final outcome. Engberg in his 

 calculations reaches the same conclusions, finding the 

 yield more variable than the acreage. "Of the two fac- 

 tors, yield and acreage, which make up total production, 

 yield varies the more widely. The coefficient of variability 

 of the percentage changes of yield is 14.60 per cent, and 

 that of acreage 9.03 per cent." 23 



What is the explanation of this tendency? The pro- 

 duction of a bumper crop is due to large acreage, plus 

 an equally important factor exceptionally fine weather. 

 There are likely no observable cycles of weather, and 



23 Op. cit., p. 159. 



