GAMBLING SUPERSTITION 8. 355 



dice was a circumstance which chance could never 

 bring about, for experience was as much against such 

 an event as it would seem to be against the turning up 

 of a certain number ten successive times at roulette. 

 Yet experience now shows that the thing is possible ; 

 and if we are to limit the action of chance, we must 

 assert that the throwing of 'seven' ten times in 

 succession is an event which will never happen. Yet 

 such a conclusion obviously rests on as unstable a 

 basis as the former, of which experience has disposed. 

 Observe, however, how the two gamblers viewed this 

 very eventuality. Mne successive 6 sevens ' had been 

 thrown ; and if there were any truth in the theory 

 that the power of chance was limited, it might have 

 been regarded as all but certain that the next throw 

 would not be a ' seven.' But a run of bad fortune had 

 so shaken Mr. Ogden's faith in his luck (as well as in 

 the theory of the maturity of the chances) that he was 

 ready to pay 470 guineas (nearly thrice the mathe- 

 matical value of his opponent's chance) in order to 

 save his endangered thousand ; and so confident was 

 his opponent that the run of luck would continue that 

 he declined this very favourable offer. Experience had 

 in fact shown both the players, that although ' sevens ' 

 could not be thrown for ever, yet there was no saying 

 when the throw would change. Both reasoned probably 

 that as an eighth throw had followed seven successive 

 throws of ' seven ' (a wonderful chance), and as a ninth 

 had followed eight successive throws (an unprecedented 

 event), a tenth might well follow the nine (though 



