GAMBLING SUPERSTITIONS. 357 



simply one-sixth as at the first trial. If there were 

 any truth in the theory of the 'maturity of the 

 chances,' the chance of such a throw would of course 

 be greatly diminished. But even taking the mathe- 

 matical value of the chance, Mr. Ogden need in 

 fairness only have offered a sixth part of 1,001 guineas 

 (the amount of the stakes), or 166 Gruas. 17s. 6cZ., to 

 be off his wager. So that his opponent accepted in 

 the first instance an utterly unfair offer, and refused in 

 the second instance a sum exceeding by more than 

 three hundred guineas the real value of his chance. 



Closely connected with the theory about the range 

 of possibility in the matter of chance combinations, is 

 the theory of the maturity of the chances, ' the most 

 elementary of the theories on probabilities.' It might 

 safely be termed the most mischievous of gambling 

 superstitions. 



As an illustration of the application of this theory, 

 we may cite the case of an Englishman, once well 

 known at foreign gambling-tables, who had based a 

 system on a generalisation of this theory. In point of 

 fact the theory asserts that when there has been a run 

 in favour of any particular event, the chances in favour 

 of the event are reduced, and therefore, necessarily, 

 the chances in favour of other events are increased. 

 Now our Englishman watched the play at the roulette 

 table for two full hours, carefully noting the numbers 

 which came up during that time. Then, eschewing 

 those numbers which had come up oftenest, he staked 

 his money on those which had come up very seldom or 



