GAMBLING SUPERSTITIONS. 363 



not a whit more probable that the preponderance will 

 be compensated by a corresponding deficiency in the 

 next thousand trials than that it will be repeated in 

 that set also. The most probable result of the second 

 thousand trials is precisely that result which was most 

 probable for the first thousand that is, that there will 

 be no marked preponderance either way. But there 

 may be such a preponderance ; and it may lie either 

 way. It is the same with the next thousand, and the 

 next, and for every such set. They are in no way 

 affected by preceding events. In the nature of things, 

 how can they be ? But, ' the whirligig of time brings 

 in its revenges' in its own way. The balance is re- 

 stored just as chance directs. It may be in the next 

 thousand trials, it may be not before many thousands 

 of trials. We are utterly unable to guess when or how 

 it will be brought about. 



But it may be urged that this is mere assertion ; and 

 many will be very ready to believe that it is opposed to 

 experience, or even contrary to common sense. Yet 

 experience has over and over again confirmed the 

 matter, and common sense, though it may not avail to 

 unravel the seeming paradox, yet cannot insist on the 

 absurdity that coming events of pure chance are affected 

 by completed events of the same kind. If a person 

 has tossed ' heads ' nine times running (we assume fair 

 and lofty tosses with a well-balanced coin), common 

 sense teaches him, as he is about to make the tenth 

 trial, that the chances on that trial are precisely the 

 same as the chances on the first. It would, indeed, 



