GAMBLING SUPERSTITIONS. 373 



twelve or thirteen times, or any other considerable 

 number of times in succession, is not more (or less) 

 likely to toss ' head ' on the next trial than at the 

 beginning. About half, we said, in discussing the 

 fortunes of the tossers, would toss ' head ' at the next 

 trial: in other words, about half would fail to toss 

 6 head.' The chances for and against these lucky 

 tossers are equal at the next trial, precisely as the 

 chances for and against the least lucky of the ten 

 million tossers would be equal at any single tossing. 



Yet, it may be urged, experience shows that luck 

 continues; for many have won by following the lead 

 of lucky players. Now I might, at the outset, point 

 out that this belief in the continuance of luck is 

 suggested by an idea directly contradictory to that on 

 which is based the theory of the maturity of the 

 chances. If the oftener an event has occurred, the 

 more unlikely is its occurrence at the next trial 

 the common belief then contrary to the common 

 belief, the oftener a player has won (that is, the 

 longer has been his run of luck), the more unlikely is 

 he to win at the next venture. We cannot separate 

 the two theories, and assume that the theory of the 

 maturity of the chances relates to the play, and the 

 theory of runs of luck to the player. The success of 

 the player at any trial is as distinctly an event a 

 chance event as the turning up of ace or deuce at the 

 cast of a die. 



What then are we to say of the experience of those 

 who have won money by following a lucky player ? 



