404 THE BORDERLAND OF SCIENCE. 



expecting that in that case no coincidence would 

 occur. But the matter is reversed when a great mul- 

 titude of cases are in question. The probable result 

 then is that there will be coincidences. This may 

 easily be illustrated by reference to a question of 

 ordinary probabilities. Suppose there is a lottery 

 with a thousand tickets and but one prize. Then it is 

 exceedingly unlikely that any particular ticket-holder 

 will obtain the prize the odds are, in fact, 999 to 1 

 against him. But suppose he had one ticket in each 

 of a million different lotteries all giving the same 

 chance of success. Then it would not be surprising 

 for him to draw a prize ; on the contrary, it would be 

 a most remarkable coincidence if he did not draw one. 

 The same event the drawing of a prize which in 

 one case must be regarded as highly improbable, 

 becomes in the other case highly probable. So it is 

 with coincidences which appear utterly improbable. 

 .It would be a most wonderful thing if such coinci- 

 dences did not occur, and occur pretty frequently, in 

 the experience of every man, since the opportunities 

 for their occurrence enormously outnumber the chances 

 against the occurrence of any particular instance. 



We may reason in like manner as to superstitions. 

 Or rather, it is to be noted that the coincidences on 

 which superstitions are commonly based are in many 

 instances not even remarkable. Misfortunes are not so 

 uncommon, for instance, that the occurrence of a dis- 

 aster of some sort after the spilling of salt at table can 

 be regarded as surprising. If three or four persons, 



