rERMISMIil.l. Iliiat.A I lO.N t ilAK<il> 17 



CIIAI'IKK II 

 NATURE OF THE PROBLEM UNDER INVESTIGATION 



Comploxitics in Analyzing Data. 



What thi* l«n«lo\vii«*r i'hu affonl to pay for irri^'ation watrr must 

 always In- ri'lativ*-. iM't-aiisi* of tin* many fa«'tt>rs iiivoivcd, vuvh of 

 whirli in turn Iwars somr jlircct or intlin-i-t n-latiou to some out' or all «>f 

 th«» othrrs. 



For instantM'. surh «|u«'stions as tlu' typo of tlio farm rntrrprise and 

 its sizo. tlu' knowl«'<li;«' ami aliility of thi- farnu'r, tlu' W(»rkinv' I'apital li«' 

 has availahlf and tln' fxt«'nt of his intli>l>ti'dn«>ss — all of \v|ii«'h an* 

 more or h'ss personal or iiulividiud to tlu* ^rrowt-r -very detinitely afTect 

 the amount he ean pay for irrijration water. Ai;ain, this amount may 

 dep«'nd on liow mueh he s|>ends for plowing' and eultivatiu'^' ; for prun- 

 mjr. fertilizing: and pest (Mmtrol; f«ir state, eounty and «ither taxes; for 

 harvesting; an<i markftinu'. etc.. sinee all or most of these faetors may 

 atTet't not only the eost of production, hut idso tin- yiehl and henee the 

 farm income. 



The chaiiLMu^ relation hctwiti I In- viduf of land and the cost of 

 irrij^ation water introduces anotJH-r element of uncertainty. This, how- 

 ever, is not a nuitter which can b' arbitrarily determined throu^rh the 

 tixinp of water charir»"s. It is obvious the water necessary to nuike 

 laiujs produi'e i>, as e^smfial as the .-oil ; iind that since th«'r<' is a (•••rtain 

 nuiximum price for any ^iven prnduction which a farmer can atTord 

 to pay for lan<l and water to^rether. whi«*h price he can not exceed 

 without loss, the price of either the land or the water separately mu.st 

 ultinuitely be governed l)y the prife of the otluT. 



In other wonls. as the cost of providini; irrigation water increases, 

 the amount farmers can safely pay for land corresponiJinjrly di-ereawH. 

 or at least must «leerea.se if the inv«'stment in to Im* economical. I/ow 

 'ion c«)sts rneoiirairf development, just as hit'h irriir«tion costs 

 :;..., it. While sensiim these fm ts. the cfUJtinuan. .• ..f what n>i>:ht. 

 »»ver a iM»ri«Ml of years, b«« j-onsidered normal land pn ., prie«'« that 



do not reflect the pres4>nt deprevsi«in in ajjriculture. has Ini-n axsunuMl 

 in the study. The conclusion can not be e<<eaped, howi'ver, that un«UT 

 the unu.siudly favorable climatic j.nd nuirket condilioiiH of the up|N>r 

 San •loatpiin Valley, the price of b nd will !>«• affecti'd adversely by the 

 necessary cosrt of irritration water much more in the future than it has 

 Imm'Ii in the past, due to the • 'id for and the '■ 



cost of tin- latter. liy this :...,;. .. :lie irrigation w ^ 



appreciably exceed thf**' arrived at in this reiKirt, the iM-tti-r landn, if 

 capable of };rowin(; prcMiiicts of hitrh value and hi(;h demand, will Im* 

 ke|>t in prfMluefion 



The -•■••■' -stu.n has In-en niade that it is i"'» ""sjiible to M-parnle a 

 **|M>rni ' irriu'ation water chnrue from t .-r items in the cohI 



of producing a farm crop: that an inereaw* or «b"erea««' in any of the 

 important it«'ms f»f j-ONt \\«>ulil It' ' ' ' •• farni' 



atTord to pay for irrijfatiun »< ■'• ■ ''n.-d 



2- sOiijJ 



